000 AXNT20 KNHC 262307 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Dec 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A 992 mb low pressure currently near 39N60W will move southeastward while gradually intensifying over the next few days. In the process, it will bring a strong cold front south of 30N and east of 70W tonight. The front will reach from 31N35W to near the Leeward Islands by late Tue. Winds reaching gale force will follow the front over the waters north of 29N between 35W and 55W from Mon morning to Tue morning. In addition, very rough to high seas will accompany the front mainly east of Bermuda, with seas expected to peak between 20 and 22 ft Mon night and early Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Liberia near 06N10W to 05N12W. The ITCZ extends continues from 05N12W through 04N26W to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms is evident along the western half of the ITCZ from the equator to 06N between 26W and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends westward from 1020 mb high pressure located in the eastern Gulf across the basin. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas over the northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas dominate the eastern Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, the ridge extending from the subtropical Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico will shift east through Mon night. Return flow will then prevail through Fri night. This pattern will support moderate to fresh south to southeast winds across the basin through Wed evening with locally strong winds developing west of 90W Tue and Tue night. Gentle to moderate return flow is forecast basin-wide Thu and Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the area dominates the pattern over the Caribbean Sea generating a moderate to fresh trades mostly across the eastern and central basin. An earlier scatterometer pass revealed fresh northeast winds through the Windward Passage and a small area of near gale force winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas in the basin are generally 3 to 5 ft with 6 to 7 ft possible near the coast of Colombia and Panama in the southern Caribbean. A few showers are possible near the Gulf of Honduras along a trough stretching from 21N86W to 16N82W. Showers are also noted in the Leeward Islands near a trough E of the islands. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will remain nearly stationary the next couple of days and winds in the western half of the basin will increase to moderate to fresh through Tue. Strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras and the central Caribbean Tue night through Fri night as the high pressure north of the area strengthen. Strong NE winds are forecast at night in the Windward passage through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning issued for the central Atlantic. High pressure near central Florida dominates the western Atlantic. Winds are generally increasing with latitude from a gentle to moderate northeasterly breeze and 3-5 ft seas near the Greater Antilles to a fresh westerly breeze with 8-10 ft seas north of 29N. Seas range 8-10 ft N of 28N and E of 70W, otherwise seas range 3 to 6 ft across the western Atlantic. East of 65W, a strong westerly breeze and greater fetch area are causing higher seas to propagate farther south with altimeter data confirming seas are greater than 10 ft north of 30N while 8 ft seas reach as far south as 25N in the central Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, a dying cold front extends from 31N28W to 28N35W where a dying stationary boundary continues to 26N46W. A fresh breeze is noted along the front. Moderate trade winds are noted south of 20N. Gentle winds dominate the remainder of the basin from 20N to 27N with moderate northerly swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the Bahamas will shift slightly west over Florida ahead of a cold front moving into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight. The front will continue to move southeast of the region through Wed. The high pressure will shift eastward following the front, and strengthen northeast of the Bahamas Tue through Fri. $$ AReinhart