000 AXNT20 KNHC 260929 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Dec 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... .Atlantic Gale Warning... A 997 mb low pressure currently east of Cape Cod Bay will move southeastward while gradually intensifying over the next 24 to 48 hours. In the process, it will bring a strong cold front south of 30N and east of 70W tonight. The front will reach from 31N35W to near the Leeward Islands by late Tue. Winds reaching gale force will follow the front over the waters north of 29N between 35W and 55W from Mon morning to Tue morning. In addition very large swell will accompany the front mainly east of Bermuda, with seas expected to peak between 20 and 22 ft Mon night and early Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly inland across western Africa. An ITCZ extends from off the Sierra Leone-Liberia coast at 06N12W through 06N20W to 01N35W to 02N47W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 01N to 03N between 33W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends westward from 1020 mb high pressure over the northern Bahamas to the coast of Texas. This pattern is supporting moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas over the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes and slight seas over the eastern Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, winds and seas will build slightly over the western Gulf through Tue, into mid week. The ridge will shift eastward Wed, allowing winds and seas to diminish across the basin through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered north of the area dominates the pattern over the Caribbean Sea. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong winds pusling off the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela, along with fresh NE wind into the northern part of the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are evident off the coast of eastern Honduras and northeast Nicaragua along a trough. For the forecast, little change is expected. The high pressure north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh winds across the Caribbean through Thu, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning issued for the central Atlantic. 1020 mb high pressure is centered near the northern Bahamas, just east of Abaco Island. A cold front is analyzed from 31N33W to 24N50W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh E winds north of 29N, between the high pressure and lower pressure farther north. Seas are likely 5 to 8 ft north of 29N west of 60W, and 8 to 12 ft in NW swell north of 27N west of the front to 60W. A recent altimeter pass identified an area of seas approaching 8 ft near 24N62W, in residual N swell. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere west of the front. Farther east, fresh to strong SW winds are evident within 300 nm east of the front, with 8 to 10 ft seas. Elsewhere, light gentle breezes are noted north of 18N under the influence of the subtropical ridge, with moderate trade winds farther south. 8 to 9 ft seas in N swell are noted east of line from roughly the Canary Islands to 07N50W and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the northern Bahamas will weaken and shift west over Florida ahead of the cold front moving into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight. The front will continue to move southeast of the region through Wed. The high pressure will shift eastward following the front, and strengthen northeast of the Bahamas through Thu. $$ Christensen