000 AXNT20 KNHC 260600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Dec 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... .Atlantic Gale Warning... A 998 mb low pressure currently E of Cape Cod Bay will move southeastward while gradually intensify over the next 24 to 48 hours. In the process, it will bring a strong cold front southward to SE of Bermuda near 30N60W by late Sun night or early Mon morning. This will generate gale winds E of Bermuda and then spread southward to near 29N56W Mon afternoon. These gale winds are going to last into late Mon night/early Tue morning. Seas in this area are expected to peak between 20 and 22 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly inland across central Africa. An ITCZ extends from off the Sierra Leone-Liberia coast at 06N12W through 03N30W to N of Brazil at 01N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 19W and 36W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen farther W from the Equator to 03N between 36W and 49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends westward from central Florida to central Mexico. This feature is supporting a light to gentle winds with seas at 2 to 3 ft across the E and central Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present over the W Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the surface ridge will lift northward through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh southeast winds over the central and W Gulf. Looking ahead, the high pressure will move eastward through mid week, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the central and western Gulf by Wed night. Mostly gentle winds and slight seas will persist over the E Gulf into Mon, followed by moderate winds and seas through mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is triggering scattered showers over the NW and W central basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Convergent trade winds are producing similar conditions over Hispaniola and at the SE basin, near the Venezuela coast. Otherwise a pair of high pressure, one over the NW Bahamas and another over the central Atlantic continue to support easterly flow in the Caribbean. An earlier satellite scatterometer pass and wave model data indicate moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with seas at 5 to 6 ft over the S central basin, N of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse mainly during overnight hours off Colombia starting tonight. Elsewhere, winds and seas will diminish through Sun across the basin as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. High pressure will build again north of the area following a cold front moving across the W Atlantic. This will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds across much of the basin through mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning issued for the central Atlantic. A cold front curves southwestward from SW of the Azores across 31N39W to near 24N50W, then continues westward as a shear line to near the SE Bahamas at 23N71W. Scattered showers are found up to 90 nm SE of the front, and up to 120 nm N of the shear line. A couple of trade-wind disturbances are generating similar conditions E of the Leeward Islands from 15N to 20N between 46W and 59W. These disturbances will increase the chance of showers for the Leeward and Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico from Sun evening through Mon evening. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A trio of high pressures stretching eastward from the NW Bahamas to W of the Canary Islands are promoting light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft from 20N to 28N between NW African and Florida coasts. N of 28N, Moderate to fresh with locally strong westerly winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are present between the Moroccan and Georgia coasts. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades are seen from 05N to 20N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Within this area, trade-wind swell and wind waves are producing seas of 5 to 8 ft W of 40W; while residual NW and trade-wind swells are maintaining seas at 8 to 10 ft E of 40W. Moderate to fresh with locally strong northerly winds with seas at 8 to 10 ft are evident N of Brazil from the Equator to 05N between 40W and the 50W. Light to gentle E to SE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the shearline extending along 22N through the Turks and Caicos Islands will remain stationary and dissipate overnight. High pressure N of shearline and just S of Bermuda will slide eastward, ahead of a cold front that will move across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida Sun. Looking ahead, the front will move SE of the region early next week as high pressure builds NE of the N Bahamas behind the front. Large N swell with building seas will follow the front east of 70W Sun through mid week. $$ Chan