000 AXNT20 KNHC 242324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Dec 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 06N19W to 01N37W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 07W-14W and from 00N-07N between 30W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from high pressure centered near the coast of South Carolina to the central Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is supporting a fresh southerly breeze in the northwest Gulf where seas are likely 4-6 ft. A gentle to moderate breeze with 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the central basin with a light breeze and 1 to 2 ft seas in the northeast Gulf. No shower or thunderstorm activity is currently observed in the basin. For the forecast, a ridge extending from high pressure over the eastern Gulf to the Texas coast will lift northward through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh southeast winds over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the NW tip of Haiti near 20N73W to 18.5N75W. Isolated tstorms are noted over the Dominican Republic. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong N to NE winds persisting in the Windward Passage extending south to Jamaica. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds dominate the northwestern and central Caribbean with 3 to 5 ft seas. In the eastern Caribbean a moderate easterly breeze prevails with 3 to 4 ft seas. A surface trough extends across the Mona Passage, generating isolated showers near Puerto Rico. Isolated showers may also be occurring near a surface trough over the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong north winds over the Windward Passage following a front stalled over Haiti will diminish by early Sat as the front dissipates. High pressure building north of the area behind the front will support moderate to fresh winds over much of the central and southwest Caribbean through the middle part of next week, including overnight winds pulsing to strong off Colombia starting Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two surface high pressures of 1023 mb are centered near 33N80W and 32N74W, respectively. Light to gentle winds prevail northwest of a line from Miami FL to 31N68W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. A cold front extends from 31N52W to 21N68W, then stationary to the NW tip of Haiti. Scattered showers prevail east of 60W within 150 nm northwest of the front and within 90 nm southeast of the front. Fresh N to NE winds are west of the front with 6 to 8 ft seas. Strong SW winds are within 240 nm east of the front, north of 29N, where seas are 8-10 ft. Farther east, 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N32W. A surface ridge with light to gentle winds and 5 to 6 ft seas extends across the basin from the Canary Islands to the 1019 mb high near 27N32W to 20N66W. Fresh trades are south of the ridge axis over the tropical Atlantic, south of 17N to the ITCZ between 30W-60W, where seas are 7-9 ft. Seas of 8-11 ft in N swell prevails across the waters east of 37W and north of 10N. For the forecast, the cold front extending from 31N52W to 21N68W will reach from 31N36W to 22N65W Sat evening, then dissipate Sun. High pressure building behind the front off the Carolinas will move to the south of Bermuda through early Sat, ahead of another front that will move across the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida Sun. Strong SW to W winds are expected in advance of this front, north of 28N between 40W-80W Sat night through Sun night. As the front continues eastward on Mon, gale force W winds are possible Mon into Mon night north of 29N between 35W-60W. Large N swell, with building seas will follow the front east of 70W Sun through Tue. The highest seas (potentially 16 to 21 ft) are expected Mon through Tue north of 27N between 30W-60W. High pressure will build in Tue over the western Atlantic behind the front. $$ Hagen