000 AXNT20 KNHC 240533 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Dec 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to 02N30W, 01N40W, 02N43W, and 01N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 38W and 51W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 10W and 21W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate winds or slower are in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. For the forecast, a ridge extending from high pressure over the eastern Gulf to the Texas coast will lift north through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through 22N70W, across the western sections of Haiti, to 17N75W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 71W/72W from 13N to SW sections of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: rainshowers are from 14N northward between Puerto Rico and Jamaica. Strong winds are blowing through the Windward Passage, and within 180 nm to the east of Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet from Cuba and Jamaica westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will persist over the Windward Passage through Fri night following a cold front that move through the area earlier. The front will stall and dissipate south of Hispaniola through Fri. High pressure building north of the area behind the front will support moderate to fresh winds over much of the central and southwest Caribbean through early next week, including overnight winds pulsing to strong off Colombia starting Sat night. For tropical Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles, swell with wave heights to 9 ft will subside through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N61W, to 25N67W, 22N70W, across the western sections of Haiti, to 17N75W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm on either side of the cold front. Rainshowers are from 14N to 20N between Puerto Rico and Jamaica. Fresh to strong winds are within 150 nm to the southeast of the cold front between 60W and 66W, and to the northwest of the cold front from 67W eastward, and from 24N to 30N between 70W and the Bahamas. A stationary front passes through 31N16W to 24N29W to 24N35W and 23N48W. The sea heights are ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet to the north of the front between 30W and 40W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible along and to the north of the stationary front. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the north of the stationary front. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 29N37W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet, generally, from 23N southward between 20W and 60W. The sea heights range from 15 feet to 20 feet within 360 nm to the northwest of the Canary Islands, close to the Azores. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere between 55W and 70W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 70W westward. Near gale-force winds are from 06N to 09N between 39W and 44W. Strong winds cover the area from 03N to 16N between 35W and 57W, and from 12N to 20N between 55W and 63W. Fresh winds cover much of the rest of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from the ITCZ to 20N. Moderate to fresh winds cover the area from 20N northward from 55W westward. For the forecast, a cold front extending from 27N68W to northern Haiti will stall through Fri night then dissipate through late Sat. High pressure will build behind the front between Bermuda and northeast Florida. The high pressure will dissipate through late Sat ahead of another cold front moving into the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida, followed by fresh to strong W winds north of 29N and east of 70W. Looking ahead, the front will move across the region through early next week, followed by seas 8 ft or greater east of 70W Sun through Tue. $$ mt/ec