000
AXNT20 KNHC 221658
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Dec 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1645 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends westward along the northern Gulf of 
Guinea to the southern coast of Liberia near 04N08W. The ITCZ 
continues NW from 04N08W to 08N20W and then SW near 02N45W and 
finally W to the northern coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted near the western extent of the ITCZ 
within 300 nm of the South American coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to build over the basin behind yesterday's
cold front causing a dry and stable atmosphere. Winds are 
generally out of the north with a moderate to fresh breeze in the
eastern Gulf and a light to gentle breeze in the western Gulf. Seas
are generally 4 to 6 ft except for an area of 2 to 4 ft in the NW
Gulf.

Winds and seas will diminish over the eastern Gulf today, as high
pressure builds in. The center of the high will cross the northern
Gulf into Fri. Later on Fri and continuing into the weekend, fresh
southerly return flow will establish over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front stretches from central Cuba to eastern Honduras.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm of this
boundary. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are noted behind the
front in the northwestern Caribbean. Winds ahead of the front are
generally light to gentle, increasing to a moderate to fresh 
easterly breeze in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft behind
the cold front in the Western Caribbean and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

The cold front will move east, then stall by late Thu from the 
Windward Passage to offshore Nicaragua, and finally dissipate by 
the weekend. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front into 
tonight. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades are expected in the 
eastern and central Caribbean. For tropical Atlantic waters E of 
the Lesser Antilles, fresh to locally strong trades and seas of 8 
to 9 ft will prevail into tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N72W through the central Bahamas and
into central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection with embedded
thunderstorms is noted along this boundary. Recent scatterometer
data has confirmed a strong westerly breeze behind the front and
strong southwesterly breeze ahead of the boundary. Seas of 8 to 10
ft associated with this feature are noted north of 27N.

Farther E, a warm front stretches from 31N57W to 29N52W where it
becomes stationary and continues to 27N46W where it meets a cold 
front that continues through 26N40W to 31N25W. Scattered weak
convection is noted along the boundary. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are present N of this boundary with seas of 8 to 12 ft confirmed
by a recent altimeter pass. South of this front, the remainder of
the basin is dominated by easterly trade wind flow. A tightening
pressure gradient is causing winds to increase southward from a 
gentle breeze with 6 to 8 ft seas south of the cold front to a 
fresh to strong easterly breeze with 8 to 10 ft seas between 04N 
and 20N. The strongest winds and highest seas are from 10N to 17N 
between 35W and 60W. As of 1600 UTC, Buoy 41040 located near 
15N53W has been reporting a fairly steady 20 kt easterly wind with
10 ft significant wave heights.

For the forecast, low pressure will continue moving farther away from
the NW waters today. The western Atlantic cold front will move 
east through the waters the remainder of the week, leaving strong
NW winds in place through tonight. High pressure will build in 
starting Thu.. 

$$
FLYNN