000 AXNT20 KNHC 191802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Dec 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The Gale Warning is no longer in effect for the NW Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near-gale winds behind a cold front will continue through Mon. However, a low pressure is expected to form along this front over the central Gulf Mon. This feature will introduce strong to gale winds for the central Gulf by noon Mon. Therefore a new Gale Warning is issued for the central Gulf. Refer to the High Seas Forecast at the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... An ITCZ extends westward from SW of Sierra Leone at 06N16W to 04N30W, then continues from 09N35W to near the Venezuela-Guyana border. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near the first ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 17W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the second ITCZ from 07N to 12N between 35W and the Venezuela-Guyana border. The E Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Panama and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found near and up to 150 nm NW of the front. Convergent southerly winds S of the front are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from N of the Bay of Campeche to W of southern Florida. Behind the front, strong to near-gale N to NE winds with seas at 8 to 10 ft prevail. S and SE of the front, gentle to moderate winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the cold front will move slowly southward through this evening. A low pressure is expected to form along this front in the central Gulf Mon, then move NE into the SE U.S. Tue. This will accelerate the front eastward through the Gulf by Tue night. This low will likely bring strong to gale winds to portions of the N central and NE Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will subside Wed through Thu in the wake of the front, as weak high pressure builds in across the Gulf. Refer to the Special Features section for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough and the leading element of a shear line are causing scattered showers near Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to ENE trades and seas of 9 to 11 ft are found over the central basin. Gentle to moderate ESE trades with seas at 4 to 5 ft are present across the NW basin. Moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure building southward through the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean through tonight. The high will then push east Mon, allowing winds to diminish. Large N to NE swell will continue in the tropical N Atlantic as well as Mona and Anegada Passages through Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel late Tue and may reach Honduras and Nicaragua by Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent SW winds are generating scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 28N between 74W and the Florida-Georgia coast, and also W of the Canary Islands N of 26N between 29W and 33W. Moderate winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen across the first area, while moderate to fresh with locally strong winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are found across the second area. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft associated with the Bermuda High are evident N of 25N between 56W and 74W. Moderate with locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted near the Canary Islands N of 26N between the Mauritania- Western Sahara coast and 29W. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are seen from 08N to 25N between 33W and the Greater/Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong NE trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present from 03N to 14N between the central African coast and 33W. Gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across the rest of the basin, including the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda High will shift to the E and allow winds to relax Mon. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight, then move east, bringing strong winds on both sides of the front mainly N of 29N. Low pressure will move NE off the SE U.S. coast Tue, bringing another potential for strong to near gale winds on Wed and Thu. Large N swell impacting the Atlantic zones from 19N to 22N between 55W and 65W will diminish into tonight. $$ Chan