000 AXNT20 KNHC 190525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Dec 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force winds in the Gulf of Mexico: A cold front is along 30N91W 25N98W. Expect gale-force wind speeds from 24N to 29N between 92W and 98W. The gale-force winds are forecast to continue for the next 24 hours or so. Please, refer to the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W, to 05N20W 04N30W 03N35W. A surface trough is along 04N40W 02N41W, toward the Equator along 42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm off the coast of Liberia, and within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 17W and 32W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward between 32W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, beyond the Deep South of Texas, into NE Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm to the southeast of the cold front. Gale-force wind speeds are associated with the cold front. Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. The sea heights are forecast to range from 10 feet to 13 feet during the next 24 hours to the north of the cold front. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center, that is near 30N60W, to 28N75W, and to 26N86W in the east central Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are in the Gulf of Mexico away from the cold front. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet. A cold front has moved off the Texas coast this evening, and gale force wind gusts are developing behind it. These winds will prevail into Sun, before diminishing slightly. The front will move slowly SE through the Gulf until low pressure forms along it in the west-central Gulf Mon. The front then will accelerate as the low moves NE into the SE U.S. Tue night. Winds and seas will subside Wed through Thu in the wake of the front, as weak high pressure builds in across the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The tight surface pressure gradient, between the Atlantic Ocean 30N60W high pressure center and the lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama, is supporting fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea from Jamaica southward. The fastest wind speeds are offshore NW Colombia. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the remainder of the eastern sections and the central Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are in the NW Caribbean Sea. Seas of 9-12 ft dominate the waters E of the Lesser Antilles and in the south central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet elsewhere S of 18N and E 82W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet in NE swell in the Atlantic Ocean passages that are to the east of the Mona Passage. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea. Isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers cover the coastal plains and the coastal waters from NE Nicaragua to eastern Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the SW corner of the area, from 12N southward from 75W westward, on the northern side of the monsoon trough. Patches of low level moisture, that are embedded in the trade wind flow, are elsewhere, and producing isolated to scattered passing rainshowers. High pressure building south through the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean into tonight. The high will then push east Mon, allowing winds to diminish. Large N to NE swell will continue in the tropical N Atlantic as well as Mona and Anegada Passages into Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front should move through the Yucatan Channel late Tue and may reach Honduras and Nicaragua by Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge is along 24N45W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 30N60W, to 29N66W, 28N75W, and to 26N86W in the east central Gulf of Mexico. A first cold front passes through 31N17W, to 26N20W just to the east of the Canary Islands, to 23N24W. The cold front is dissipating from 23N24W to 20N32W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 180 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds that are moving northeastward from the Atlantic Ocean into Africa, are within 700 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front. A second cold front is along 31N20W 30N30W 31N37W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the south and southeast of the second cold front. An earlier shearline was along 22N30W 17N45W 18N60W. Fresh to strong NE winds have been on the northern side of the shearline W of 35W. Mainly moderate NE winds have been on the southern side of the shearline. The pressure gradient between the high pressure, and the lower pressures near the ITCZ, supports fresh to locally strong NE-E winds from 10N-16N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas of 9-12 ft in NE swell are in this region. Altimeter passes indicate seas of 9-13 ft in the wake of the front between 40W-55W. The Bermuda High is inducing fresh to strong trades near the Greater Antilles and mainly gentle winds elsewhere. These conditions will prevail today, before the high shifts to the east and winds relax. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon, then move east, bringing strong winds on both sides of the front mainly N of 29N. Low pressure will move NE off the SE U.S. coast Tue, bringing another potential for strong to near gale winds on Wed and Thu. Large N swell impacting the Atlantic zone from 19N to 22N between 55W and 65W will diminish today. $$ mt/sk