000 AXNT20 KNHC 170952 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Dec 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea to near 07N27W then transitions to the ITCZ and continues from 07N27W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between the coast of Africa and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface trough extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N86W to the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Convection previously associated with this trough has dissipated. Moderate E to SE winds dominate the Gulf basin, except locally fresh winds within the Florida Straits and off the southern Texas coast. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern forecast waters through Sat, supporting moderate to locally fresh winds. A cold front is forecast to enter the basin Sat night into early Sun. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will prevail west of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 16N and W of 79W, including over portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, where localized flooding is possible. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 10 ft over the central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, strong high pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through the forecast period. This will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean into nearly next week. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front stretches from 31N29W to 21N53W, where it transitions to a shear line that continues to 23N61W. A weak surface trough is noted ahead of the front about 120 nm, to the E of 35W. High pressure of 1032 mb centered just E of Bermuda is building S in the wake of the front, leading to an increasing pressure gradient over much of the area. Strong winds are noted from 20N to 25N between 55W and 65W, with fresh to strong winds ongoing over much of the rest of the basin E of 70W. Farther W, generally moderate east winds prevail. Gales north of the area have generated a large northerly swell which has propagated into the northern waters. The swell is producing seas of 12 ft or greater north of 24N and behind the front to around 70W, and are currently peaking near 19 ft over the discussion waters along 31N between 40W and 46W. West of 70W, seas range from 5 to 8 ft For the forecast, high pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the forecast waters. The area of high pressure will build southward, bringing an increase in winds and seas into the weekend. For the start of next week, a cold front will move into northwest waters. $$ KONARIK