293 AXNT20 KNHC 140539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Dec 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 05N21W to 05N37W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 26W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. and deep layer dry air is supporting generally fair weather conditions over the Gulf of Mexico. A scatterometer satellite pass noted moderate E winds across the basin with gentle to moderate winds in the western Gulf. A weak trough continues to linger offshore NE Mexico. Seas range within 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern forecast waters through the week. Fresh east winds will spread westward through the Straits of Florida and into the eastern Gulf S of 26N through midweek along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient from high pressure centered over the southeast U.S. combined with lower pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh winds over much of the basin, with locally strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba and Hispaniola, and offshore Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft, reaching 8 ft in the areas of stronger winds. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the far SW Caribbean off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama in association with the East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-central Caribbean through the week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. Strong high pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through the forecast period. This will result in fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and south of Hispaniola through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N53W to 29N59W, then transitions to a dissipating stationary front to 29N67W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of this boundary. Winds on both sides of the boundary are generally moderate. Seas in this area are in the 5 to 7 ft range. A 1031 mb Azores high is centered near 37N30W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure over Africa is supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds from 10N to 27N and between 18W to 55W. Seas are in the 7 to 13 ft range in this region. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Medium to high ash concentrations are expected near and south of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure prevails across the western Atlantic in the wake of the cold front, supporting moderate to fresh winds over the forecast waters. High pressure will build southward from the middle to end of the week. This will result in an increase in winds and seas by the end of the week. $$ Mora