000 AXNT20 KNHC 131000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Dec 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 09N13.5W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 05N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 13W and 22W, and from 02N to 07N between 40W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from central Florida to near 25N95W to the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf waters, except for the far SW waters west of the front where moderate to fresh winds are noted. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the SW Gulf, 1-3 ft over the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, patchy marine fog will lower visibility along the NE Gulf this morning and once again Tue. The stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh east winds will spread westward through the Straits of Florida and to the eastern Gulf S of 26N through midweek along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure is building across the eastern seaboard of the United States. The pressure gradient between this area of building high pressure and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean, and in the lee of Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the south- central Caribbean through the week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic through the forecast period. This will result in fresh to locally strong northeast winds and building seas in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and south of Hispaniola through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Florida. Gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the front with moderate to fresh winds south of the front. Seas over this area are in the 4-7 ft range. A 1031 mb Azores high is centered near 38N33W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds from 10N to 25N from Africa westward to the Windward Islands. Seas over much of this area are in the 8-11 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will drift southward while gradually dissipating. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. This will freshen winds over the forecast waters, mainly south of 25N, through the week. $$ AL