000 AXNT20 KNHC 130415 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Dec 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ begins near 07N18W and extends to 04N35W and to the coast of Amapa, Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ E of 23W and W of 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front snakes its way across the Gulf waters from near Tampa, Florida, to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Despite the presence of the frontal boundary, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the basin with only a few shallow showers dotting the basin. Fresh easterly winds are found in the SE Gulf, mainly in the Florida Straits. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas of 4-6 ft are present W of 90W, with the highest seas occurring offshore Veracruz. Seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, patchy marine fog will lower visibility along the NE Gulf tonight and once again Tue. A stationary front extends from central Florida to near 25N95W to the Bay of Campeche. Strong N winds will remain through this evening across the southwestern Gulf W of the front, with seas to 8 ft subsiding tonight. The front will dissipate through Mon. Fresh east winds will spread westward through the Straits of Florida and to the eastern Gulf S of 26N Mon through midweek along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles has been displaced eastward by the frontal boundary moving across the NW Atlantic. This has allowed the pressure gradient between the high pressure system and lower pressures over northern South America to relax a little. Recent scatterometer satellite data show fresh to locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean Sea and in the lee of Cuba. Fresh to locally strong trades are also likely present offshore southern Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage, however, this portion of the basin was not captured by the satellite- derived wind data. Moderate or weaker winds prevail in the rest of the Caribbean. Seas of 5-7 ft are found in the central, SW and eastern Caribbean, while 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere in the basin. A few showers are observed within 60 nm of the coast of Costa Rica and Colombia, while fairly tranquil conditions are the norm in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the south- central Caribbean through mid week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic through the forecast period. This will result in fresh to locally strong northeast winds and building seas in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and south of Hispaniola through the week ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N72W to the Space Coast of Florida near 28N80W. There is also a pre-frontal trough that extends from 31N66W to 27N72W and only a few showers are seen near the frontal boundary and trough axis. The subtropical Atlantic remains under the influence of a broad high pressure regime anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure system located SW of the Azores. As a result of the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa and the deep tropics, fresh to strong easterly winds are found mainly S of 26N and E of 60W. Fresh to locally strong trades are also present at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas of 7-11 ft are prevalent over a large area in the tropical Atlantic, mainly E of 65W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found elsewhere in the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure is producing moderate to fresh NE to E winds S of 22N, and mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 22N. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall and reach Central Florida tonight. This front is forecast to dissipate over the southeastern waters on Mon night. High pressure behind the front will bring fresh to strong northeast to east winds mainly across the waters south of 27N by Mon night. These conditions are expected to last through midweek. $$ DELGADO