000 AXNT20 KNHC 120527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Dec 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0525 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf waters, extending from the western Florida Panhandle to just south of Tuxpan, Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict gale force winds across the adjacent waters of southern Tamaulipas and northern Veracruz. Seas are up to 12 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force later this morning. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent, exiting through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and extending to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 07N24W to 04N35W to 01N50W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 03N to 11N and E of 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the western Gulf. The weather conditions ahead of the aforementioned cold front are tranquil. A weak surface trough extends from 19N73W to 24N95W, but it is not producing any significant convection. Strong to near gale force N-NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft are present behind the front. Moderate or weaker, except for locally fresh E-NE winds in the Florida Straits and offshore NW Yucatan, are occurring ahead of the front. Seas are 2-4 ft in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, areas of marine fog will likely return later tonight lowering visibility in the early morning hours along the NE Gulf. A high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic to the central Gulf will continue to shift eastward in response to the strong cold front that is moving across the NW Gulf. Gale force winds are expected to continue over the far west Gulf through Sun 12Z. Seas of 11 ft are expected in the wake of the front within the strongest winds. The front will weaken as it reaches from central Florida to the SW Gulf Sun and dissipate through Mon. Fresh to strong east winds will spread westward through the Straits of Florida and to the eastern Gulf S of 26N Mon through midweek along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tight pressure gradient as a result of the 1031 mb subtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic and lower pressures over northern South America result in fresh to strong trades in the central and NE Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are occurring offshore southern Hispaniola and offshore NW Colombia, as indicated by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas of 5-8 ft are present in the central, SW and eastern Caribbean Sea. A recent altimeter satellite pass showed 8 ft seas offshore NW Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds are found in the rest of the basin, except for locally fresh trades off the lee of Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean. The weather conditions remain fairly tranquil due to a dry airmass dominating the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge across the northern Caribbean and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trades over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend and early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. High pressure will continue to strengthen over the western Atlantic through the forecast period, resulting in pulsing fresh to locally strong northeast winds and building seas in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad high pressure regime dominates the tropical Atlantic anchored by strong subtropical ridges over the north Atlantic. As a result of the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridges and lower pressures over NW Africa and the deep tropics, fresh to strong easterly winds are found mainly S of 26N, with the strongest winds occurring from 17N to 24N and between 31W and 63W. Strong trades are also noted in the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas of 7-10 ft are prevalent over a large area in the tropical Atlantic, mainly E of 65W and S of 27N. Seas of 4-7 ft are found elsewhere in the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will build across the region producing moderate to fresh NE to E winds S of 22N, and mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 22N through tonight. The next cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Sun, and reach from near 31N65W to South Florida by Sun night. This front is forecast to dissipate over the southeastern waters on Mon. High pressure behind the front will bring fresh to strong northeast to east winds mainly across the waters south of 27N by Mon night. These conditions are expected to last through midweek. $$ DELGADO