765 AXNT20 KNHC 092354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong high pressure of 1035 mb persists near the Azores Islands. This system is producing a tight pressure gradient off the coast of Morocco, generating N-NE gales in the marine zone of Agadir and the northern part of Tarfaya. These conditions are forecast to continue through 10/0300 UTC. Expect seas of 10-14 ft within the area of gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends from 07N15W to 05N30W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-10N between 24W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1026 mb centered to the W of Delaware extends a ridge SW into and across the Gulf of Mexico, which is providing mainly gentle to moderate return flow and seas to 3 ft. Deep layered dry air and subsidence by a middle-level high centered at the gulf is supporting fair weather. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will gradually shift eastward through Sat afternoon in response to a strong cold front that will move over the NW Gulf by early Sat. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will set-up across the western and central Gulf beginning tonight and through Sat ahead of the strong cold front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front through late Sat night. The front will weaken as it reaches from central Florida to the SW Gulf Sun and dissipate by Mon evening. Fresh to strong east winds will spread westward through the Straits of Florida and to the eastern Gulf S of 26N Mon through Tue night along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Except for isolated passing showers in portions of the SW Caribbean due to shallow moisture, most of the Caribbean enjoys fair weather due to deep-layer dry air across the region as indicated by microwave and water vapor layered satellite imagery. The Azores high continues to extend a ridge across the northern half of the Caribbean, which is tightening the gradient with the Colombian low and supporting fresh winds basin-wide E of 82W. Locally strong winds are along the coast of Colombia and along the Windward passage. Seas in this region range between 5 to 7 ft, except 8 ft off Colombia. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge across the northern Caribbean Sea and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Fri night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. High pressure will begin to strengthen over the western Atlantic tonight resulting in fresh to locally strong northeast winds to develop in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N64W to 30N67W, where it transitions to a stationary front that continues along 28N75W to 29N80W. Moderate NE winds are N of this front. Light to gentle variable winds are in the remainder SW N Atlantic waters, except at the entrance of the Windward passage where fresh to strong NE winds are funneling through the passage. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which extends a ridge S to near 17N. This is resulting in mainly fresh trades between 40W and 65W with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are elsewhere E of 40W and N of 15N with seas to 11 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will become stationary from near 31N59W to 28N78W on Fri and dissipate over the weekend. High pressure will build across the region in the wake of the front, producing moderate to fresh NE to E winds S of 22N, and mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 22N through Sat night. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early on Sun, and reach from near 31N65W to South Florida by Sun night. This front is forecast to dissipate over the southeastern waters on Mon. High pressure behind the front will likely bring fresh to strong northeast to east winds mainly across the waters south of 27N by Mon night. These conditions are expected to last through Tue night. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory states that low ash concentration is expected near and SW of the volcano. $$ Ramos