000 AXNT20 KNHC 082204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Dec 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strengthening Azores high will tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of Morocco, generating N-NE gales in the marine zone Agadir and the northern part of Tarfaya beginning tonight at 09/0300 UTC and persisting through at least 09/1200 UTC Thursday. Expect seas of 12-15 ft within the area of gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 04N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-08N between 27W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to 27N96W. Low pressure previously along the western portion of this front, off the Texas coast, has dissipated. Scattered moderate convection exists along a pre-frontal trough roughly 90 km south of the front, while convection along the front has dissipated. Gentle to moderate N winds are occurring to the N of the cold front, with light to gentle winds to the south. There is an area of moderate E winds just N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, high pressure along the Mississippi Valley will shift E this evening, pushing a cold front across the north- central and northeast Gulf before dissipating tonight. A ridge will build westward across the basin, with a high pressure cell remaining over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will set-up across the western and central Gulf on Fri and Sat, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Sat morning. Increasing winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Ridging from subtropical high pressure is interacting with low pressure over the Colombian Basin to produce enhanced easterly flow over the region. Fresh winds are occurring over the south- central Caribbean with strong winds off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the E basin as well as the SW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, with gentle E winds elsewhere in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the SW Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft in the central and eastern basin, and 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Dry air is preventing significant convection everywhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the northern Caribbean Sea and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere except in the NW Caribbean where mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected through Thu. High pressure will strengthen over the western Atlantic Thu night, and fresh to locally strong NE winds will develop in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and S of Hispaniola through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the special features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the east Atlantic. A strong 1036 mb high pressure near the Azores over the dominate feature in the basin. To the W of 65W, for areas S of 23N, gentle to moderate trades dominate, with moderate SW winds to the N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Between 50W and 65W, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 6 to 8 ft. E of 50W, fresh to strong trades are ongoing with seas of 8 to 11 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will push a cold front off NE Florida by this evening. The front will move across the northern forecast waters through Thu night before dissipating. High pressure will build across the region in the wake of the front, producing moderate to fresh NE to E winds S of 22N, and mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 22N Thu night through Sun night. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory states that low to medium ash concentration is expected near and SW of the volcano. $$ KONARIK