000 AXNT20 KNHC 081226 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Dec 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...Updated to include Special Feature... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strengthening Azores high will tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of Morocco, generating N-NE gales in the marine zone Agadir and the northern part of Tarfaya beginning tonight at 09/0300 UTC and persisting through at least 09/1200 UTC Thursday. Expect seas of 12-15 ft within the area of gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-07N between 20W-31W, and from 04N-07N between 41W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... The stationary front previously located over the northern Gulf has move inland, and now extends from SE Georgia to eastern Texas. A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near Tampa Bay, Florida and extends a ridge across most of the Gulf region. Light to gentle winds are noted across the basin per satellite derived wind data. Seas are 1-3 ft throughout. A small are of showers and thunderstorms is near 25N86W. A dense fog advisory remains in effect across the coastal waters of western Florida from near Sarasota to the Florida Big Bend, and from the Florida Big Bend to SE Louisiana through mid-morning. Visibility will frequently be reduced to one quarter mile or less. For the forecast, reinforcing high pressure north of area will allow the aforementioned stationary front to move SE as a cold front over the N waters today before dissipating tonight. A ridge will build westward across the basin, with a high pressure cell remaining over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will set-up across the western and central Gulf on Fri and Sat, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Sat morning. Increasing winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the remainder of the E and central Caribbean, particularly from 10N- 18N and E of 80W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are blowing. Seas are 8-11 ft over the south-central Caribbean per a recent altimeter pass. Seas of 6-8 ft dominate the remainder of the east and central Caribbean with seas of 4-6 ft in the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba, and the Yucatan Channel where mainly seas of 1-3 ft prevail. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Transverse high clouds are noted over the eastern Caribbean through the Lesser Antilles into the tropical Atlantic due to strong westerly winds aloft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the northern Caribbean Sea and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Fri night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere except in the NW Caribbean where mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected. As high pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic, expect fresh to locally strong NE winds in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola Thu night through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas. A few showers are ahead of the trough axis mainly N of 27N. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh SE winds N of 28N and E of the trough to about 70W. Elsewhere W of 65W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 3-5 ft N and E of the Bahamas. For the forecast west of 65W, reinforcing high pressure over the eastern of US will push a cold front off NE Florida by this evening. The front will move across the northern forecast waters through Thu night before dissipating. High pressure will build across the region in the wake of the front, producing moderate to fresh NE to E winds S of 22N, and mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 22N Thu night through Sun. The remainder of the Atlantic remains under the influence of a strong 1035 mb high pressure located just W of the Azores near 38N30W. A surface trough is along 59W/60W from 19N-30N. An area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is over the central Atlantic affecting roughly the waters from 21N-28N between 48W-54W. This convective activity is at leading edge of an area of fresh to strong NE-E winds around the southern periphery of the Azores high. Seas of 8-10 ft are noted per altimeter data within these winds. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are observed over the remainder of the Atlantic, but mainly N of 10N and E of 50W due to the pressure gradient between the above mentioned Azores high and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory states that low ash concentration is expected in the vicinity of the volcano. $$ GR/Hagen