000 AXNT20 KNHC 072233 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Dec 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strengthening Azores high will tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of Morocco, generating localized N-NE gales and 12-15 ft seas by Thursday morning in the marine zone Agadir. Please ready the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N30W to the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N between 28W- 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is along the northern Gulf of Mexico from 29N84W to near 22N98W. A surface trough extends from the Bay of Campeche to the southeast Gulf of Mexico. High pressure of 1019 mb near Tampa Bay extends surface ridging over the central Gulf generating mainly gentle anticyclonic winds in the eastern and central Gulf with seas of 1-2 ft. Moderate northerly winds are present northwest of the stationary front along the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico, where seas are 3-4 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front will retreat inland by tonight. A ridge will build westward across the basin, with a high pressure cell remaining over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will set-up across the western and central Gulf on Fri and Sat, ahead of a strong cold front forecast to push off the Texas coast by Sat morning. Increasing winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Gale conditions are possible behind the front for the area of Tampico and Veracruz beginning Sat afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong NE to E winds continue off the coast of Colombia, along with 8 to 10 ft seas. Fresh trades dominate the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. In the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will extend a ridge across the northern Caribbean Sea and combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central basin and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere except in the NW Caribbean where mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected before the weekend. By Thu night into Sun night, as high pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic, expect fresh to locally strong NE winds in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and, S of Hispaniola. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The combination of a surface trough extending across the northwest Bahamas to 30N75W and upper-level divergence is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the trough axis between 70W and 75W and from 25N to 31N. Farther east, a second trough is noted from 30N58W to 21N57W.Between the two troughs, surface ridging is keeping winds gentle. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds prevail across the central tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W. Seas in this area are 7-10 ft. Between 60W and the Bahamas seas are 3-5 ft. An upper-level low W of the Canary Islands is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N and east of 23W. For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will prevail along 26N-27N through the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge, especially south of 22N, including the waters just N of Hispaniola and approaches to the Windward Passage. A stationary front over the far NW waters is forecast to lift northward tonight. The next front will move over the northern forecast waters Thu and Fri while dissipating. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory states that low ash concentration is expected near and W of the volcano. $$ KONARIK