000 AXNT20 KNHC 061706 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Dec 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N10W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N35W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 09W and 24W, from 01N to 09N between 24W and 37W and from 03N to 08N between 37W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge of high pressure extends from central Florida westward across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across most of the basin, with seas of 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft over the western portion of the basin. Other than a few isolated showers near the Texas coast, tranquil weather is occurring across the basin. The high pressure ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters through late this week. A weak cold front will move over the NW Gulf later today, then stall and linger near the northern Gulf coast through midweek. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is expected to develop over the northwestern and north-central Gulf on Fri, ahead of a stronger cold front that should be near the Texas coast by late Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough over the extreme SW Caribbean is supporting scattered moderate convection S of 11N and W of 77W. Otherwise, only scattered patches of trade wind showers cover the basin. Fresh to strong trades prevail across the Caribbean south of 18N and east of 80W, with strong to locally near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 6 to 10 ft, highest offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are over the W Caribbean, with 3 to 6 ft seas. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela this week between the Colombian low and a high pressure ridge located north of the region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are expected across much of the forecast area, with gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 mb area of high pressure centered near Bermuda has surface ridging that extends to central Florida, producing gentle to moderate SW winds north of 26N west of 75W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in this area. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are elsewhere W of 60W with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A surface trough extends from 31N52W to 25N56W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are within 240 n mi west of the trough axis, while light to gentle winds are found within 300 n mi to its east. Scattered moderate convection is occurring with this trough from 25N to 31N between 48W and 51W. Moderate to fresh northeasterly winds prevail across remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic between the ITCZ and 31N. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory states that ash concentration near the volcano is low at this time. For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure ridge will prevail along 26N-27N through late this week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge, especially south of 22N and including approaches to the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, a weak cold front will stall over the far northern waters early Tue, then move northward Tue night. Another cold front will move over the northern waters on Thu, then lift northward as a warm front on Fri. $$ Latto