032 AXNT20 KNHC 060642 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Dec 06 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to 03N22W, and 03N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 09N from 55W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of Florida, into the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds span the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 foot to 3 feet, with isolated maximum values reaching 4 feet in the west central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will linger in the NE Gulf through the middle of the week. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the western and central Gulf through the next several days, while mainly tranquil conditions persist in the eastern Gulf. A weak cold front will move into the Texas coastal waters Mon evening, and bring fresh to locally strong northerly winds during the afternoon. The front will stall, before retreating inland Tue. The weak front will move back offshore by Wed evening, quickly stalling again and moving back inland early Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. The GFS model for 500 mb shows that S wind flow is moving through the area that is 15N northward from 80W westward. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center is near 21N83W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward from 80W westward. The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 10N74W, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with broken to overcast low level clouds, that are moving with the low level wind flow, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Near gale-force winds are within 135 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Strong winds are from 17N southward between 70W and 81W. Fresh to strong winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate winds are in the NW corner of the area from 18N northward between 80W and 86W. Gentle or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet within 300 nm off the coast of Colombia. The sea heights range 6 feet to 8 feet between 63W and 83W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the south central Caribbean Sea, and south of Hispaniola, through the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean Sea. Moderate NE to E swell in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean is expected to continue through Thu. Active weather in the western Caribbean Sea will end by tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N northward from 72W westward. A low pressure center and frontal boundary are about 240 nm to the north of the precipitation. A stationary front extends from a 1022 mb low pressure center that is near 31N52W, to 28N51W and 25N54W. A surface trough extends from the same 1022 mb low pressure center, to a second 1022 mb low pressure center that is near 28N55W, to 26N60W and 25N66W. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 300 nm to the NW of the low pressure centers and the surface trough, between 51W and 58W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the east of the stationary front, from 23N northward. Fresh winds are from 31N southward between 60W and 71W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively drier air in subsidence that is apparent in water vapor imagery, cover the area from 14N northward from 45W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 44W eastward. Strong to near gale-force winds are between: the line from 31N at the coast of Morocco, to 31N35W 26N41W 17N52W, to the coastal border areas of Brazil and Guyana...and the line from the coastal border areas of Suriname and French Guiana to 09N37W 23N27W, to the southern coast of the Western Sahara. Fresh to moderate winds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean, with some areas of moderate or slower winds. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet to the east of the line 31N35W 13N60W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet between the line 31N35W 13N60W and the line 31N61W 20N70W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Mostly fresh winds cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, with some areas of moderate or slower wind speeds. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. Light to gentle winds will prevail through Mon. A weak cold front will move off northern Florida Tuesday, before stalling and retreating northwest through Tue night. Otherwise, weak high pressure will prevail through the middle of the week. Another cold front will push off the northern Florida Thu before retreating north by Friday. This will bring moderate to locally fresh winds on Wed and Wed night. Moderate NE to E swell east of 70W will persist through Mon. $$ mt/gr