000 AXNT20 KNHC 052242 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Dec 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N28W to 06N42W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 08W and 19W, from 02N to 07N between 26W and 44W, and from 04N to 09N between 48W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge of high pressure extends from north Florida southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across most of the basin, with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are present offshore southern Texas and NE Mexico, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Cloudiness and possible isolated showers are offshore southern Texas, with mostly dry conditions elsewhere. High pressure will linger across the NE Gulf through the middle of the week. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the western and central Gulf through the next several days while tranquil conditions persist in the eastern Gulf. A weak cold front will move into the Texas coastal waters Mon evening and bring fresh to locally strong northerly winds behind the front during the evening. The front will stall before retreating inland Tue. The weak front will move back offshore by Wed evening, quickly stalling again and moving back inland early Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from just east of Cozumel to the N coast of central Honduras. Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is enhancing scattered moderate convection to the east of the surface trough, from 18N-21N between 82W-86W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the far SW Caribbean, south of 11N and west of 77W, in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Dry conditions prevail elsewhere due to subsidence. Fresh to strong trades prevail across the Caribbean south of 18N and east of 80W, with strong to locally near gale force off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 5 to 8 ft, highest offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. Moderate winds are over the W Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and south of Hispaniola through the week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 mb high pressure near Bermuda extends surface ridging to NE Florida, producing gentle anticyclonic winds north of 28N west of 65W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in this area. A shear line extends southwestward from a 1020 mb low pressure near 31N51W to 25N60W to 25N66W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are west of this boundary. Fresh trades are present north of Hispaniola to 25N and westward through the southeastern and central Bahamas. Seas are 7-9 ft west of the shear line north of 28N, and 6-7 ft elsewhere west of the shear line. A stationary front extends southward from the aforementioned 1020 mb low from 31N51W to 25N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 270 nm east of the front. In the NE portion of the area, a surface trough extends from 27N26W to 21N21W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are present from 20N-25N between 17W-24W. Strong NE winds extend NE of the trough through the Canary Islands to the coast of Morocco. Seas are 7-10 ft north of 24N and east of 35W. Fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere east of 40W north of the ITCZ, with 6-9 ft seas. Fresh trades are also occurring from the ITCZ to 20N between 40W-62W. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory states that ash concentration near the volcano is low at this time. For the forecast west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Mon. A weak cold front will move off northern Florida Tue before stalling and retreating northwest through Tue night. Otherwise, weak high pressure will prevail through the middle of the week. Another cold front will push off the northern Florida coast Wed night before retreating north by Friday. This will bring moderate to locally fresh winds north of 29N on Wed and Wed night. $$ Hagen