000 AXNT20 KNHC 031647 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Dec 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent, entering the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 11N15W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 02N33W to 05N41W, then resumes west of a surface trough near 05N43W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. The surface trough extends from 11N41W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 19W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered south of the Louisiana coastline near 29N90W, with a surface ridge extending across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends into the central Gulf from 18N93W to 23N92W. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails across most the of the basin, with the exception of moderate NE to E flow in the south-central Gulf between 25N and the west- northwest Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are generally 3 ft or less. Outside of some cloudiness with embedded showers across the northwestern Gulf observed on satellite imagery, dry conditions prevail across the basin. For the forecast, the high pressure across the northern Gulf will shift slowly ESE across the basin through Sun, supporting tranquil conditions for the next few days. A weak cold front should enter the NW Gulf on Mon and quickly move across the northern waters on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection west of 78W and south of 17N is associated with a surface trough that is analyzed across the western Caribbean near the Panama Canal from 17N85W to 11N81W. Seas of 5 to 8 ft extend across the south and central Caribbean, with a recent altimeter pass capturing up to 10 ft in the southwest Caribbean where a tight pressure gradient is producing strong winds offshore of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, surface ridging to the north supports moderate to fresh and occasionally strong NE to E winds across the remainder of the basin and 3 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the far NW Caribbean. For the forecast, weak high pressure northwest of the area will maintain only moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean into next week, with fresh winds pulsing to strong at night off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, as well as south of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible over the Windward Passage Fri night through Sat night. Moderate NE to E swell over the tropical N Atlantic is expected to continue for the next several days. Active weather will continue across the far western Caribbean through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1013 mb low in the western Atlantic is analyzed near 30N62W with an attendant surface trough extending to 23N66W. Scattered moderate convection and fresh to strong S to SE winds are noted east of the trough west of 55W and north of 25N. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which is providing fresh to strong trades from 07N to 27N between 35W and 55W. Similar winds are between Africa and 35W north of 15N, where the pressure gradient is tight between the Azores high and lower pressure near the western coast of Africa. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in NE to E fresh swell south of 30N east of 60W. Seas are 3 to 6 ft west of 60W to the Bahamas. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, weak high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico and eastern U.S. will slowly build south and east into the area through early next week, supporting tranquil conditions over the SW N Atlantic for the next several days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the Florida coast early Tue. Moderate NE to E swell over the Atlantic waters E of 70W is expected for the next several days. $$ Nepaul