000 AXNT20 KNHC 011645 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Dec 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea and extends to near 10N16W. The ITCZ continues from 10N16W to 05N30W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 16N between the African coast and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 24N96W to 19N93W is producing cloudiness with possible embedded showers. Moderate SE winds are noted in scatterometer data east of the trough. A trough in the northwest Caribbean extends into the Yucatan Channel and southeast Gulf. The remainder of the basin is dominated by surface ridging anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure over southwest Georgia. Seas of 1 to 3 ft and light to gentle winds prevail across most of the basin. For the forecast, the high pressure building across the northern Gulf will dominate the basin into the weekend. This high pressure will gradually move eastward, returning the east to southeast flow across the northwest Gulf by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough analyzed just east of the Yucatan peninsula from 21N86W to 17N88W is producing some cloudiness and weak showers. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the far southwest Caribbean south of 13N near the northern Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua coastlines associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Farther east, a westward moving trough extends roughly along 66W from 18N to 11N. Scattered moderate convection is active along the trough south of 16N. Fresh to locally strong winds are observed in a recent scatterometer pass on either side of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds are likely occurring off Colombia, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere over the northern and central Caribbean, to include in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and off the southern coast of Hispaniola. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the northwest Caribbean and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere, with the exception of 7 to 8 ft off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain generally moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean into the weekend, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also possible over the Windward Passage and Mona Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to 27N61W then becomes stationary to 24N69W. The front disrupts the subtropical ridge between strong 1038 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands and 1025 mb high pressure between the Carolinas and Bermuda. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are observed along and within 180 nm east of the front north of 28N. Recent scatterometer and altimeter passes observed fresh to strong winds and 5 to 6 ft seas just east of the front, north of 28N. The altimeter satellite pass from this morning confirmed seas reaching 8 ft in NE swell in the vicinity of 30N65W. A strong pressure gradient between the Azores high and lower pressure near the ITCZ is causing fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas over most of the eastern Atlantic. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, a weak trough will move off northeast Florida tonight, then lift northeast of the area. A ridge will build along 27N/28N through Fri, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N by late Fri. $$ Nepaul/Hagen