000 AXNT20 KNHC 010547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Dec 01 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea and extends to near 09N15W. The ITCZ continues from 09N15W to 07N27W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 17W and 24W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the southeast U.S. allowing for gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the basin. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the basin and no significant convection is occurring. For the forecast, high pressure building across the northern Gulf will dominate the basin through the week. This high pressure will move eastward through the week, returning the east to southeast flow across the northwest Gulf by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1016 mb low is located along a surface trough stretching from western Cuba near 22N84W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N87W. The low is centered near 20N86W. No significant convection is associated with these features. Another surface trough moved through the Lesser Antilles this afternoon and now stretches from near 20N61W to 12N62W with moderate convection occurring within 60 nm on both sides of its axis. The eastward extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough reaches across Panama into the far SW Caribbean near northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection associated with this trough is confined to waters S of 13N. A scatterometer satellite pass reveals moderate to fresh winds prevailing across most of the basin with locally strong winds N of Colombia and S of Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds are within the Gulf of Honduras. Seas average 4 to 6 ft, except 7 ft seas in the SW basin and 2 to 4 ft seas in the NW basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean through the end of the week and into the weekend, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night. Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible over the Windward Passage and Mona Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N56W and becomes stationary near 28N60W. A satellite scatterometer pass noted gentle E winds south of the stationary front and gentle to moderate S winds ahead of the cold front. Gentle to moderate NE winds are north of the boundary. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm ahead of the cold front, north of 28N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft surrounding the front and 4 to 6 ft west of 70W. Farther east, a strong pressure gradient across the eastern Atlantic is allowing for fresh to strong NE to E trades east of 40W as well as areas S of 20N, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 55W, the stalled front extending from 25N65W to Crooked Island in the Bahamas will dissipate through mid week. High pressure will settle across the forecast area in the wake of the front, and dominate the region through the weekend. $$ Mora