000 AXNT20 KNHC 280601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 02N30W, and 01N39W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward from 38W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 12N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is along 24N/25N, from the Bahamas through the Straits of Florida, into the west central Gulf of Mexico, to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 25N97W and the coastal waters of NE Mexico just to the south of the border with the Texas. A surface trough extends northward, from the 1017 mb low pressure center, to 28N96W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are from the stationary front northward. Strong winds are from 25N northward on the western side of the surface trough. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from 23N northward from 93W westward. The wind speeds are moderate or slower, in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface high pressure covers the Gulf of Mexico from 27N northward between Florida and Louisiana. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet. A cold front remains stalled from the Straits of Florida to a weak 1017 mb low pressure over the far western Gulf near 25N96W. The low pressure will move into the southeast Gulf through Sun night then dissipate along with the front, ahead of another cold front expected to enter the northeast Gulf Sun evening. The second front will move across the eastern Gulf through Tue night, allowing high pressure to build over the northern Gulf through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire Caribbean Sea, with a 10N/12N ridge. The ridge is more along 10N in the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea, and more along 12N in the western half of the Caribbean Sea especially in the SW corner of the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 70W eastward, and from 15N northward between 70W and 84W. A surface trough is along 19N61W 17N65W 13N67W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet. Moderate to fresh winds cover the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N from northern Colombia at 74W, southwestward, beyond western Panama and the southern sections of Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 210 nm to the north of the monsoon trough. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow from 15N southward from 75W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area of the cyclonic wind flow at 500 mb and at 700 mb. Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist in all but the NW Caribbean through Mon. Moderate N to NE swell will continue across the Atlantic waters east of 70W and through the NE Caribbean passages through late Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Mon night, then stall and dissipate Tue night through Wed. High pressure north of the front will induce strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Tue night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N61W, to 26N70W, 25N73W. A stationary front continues from 25N73W, through the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. Fresh winds are within 60 nm on either side of the cold front from 29N northward. from 66W westward. Moderate to fresh winds are from 26N northward from 60W westward. Moderate to fresh winds, or slower, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough is along 30N53W 25N55W 20N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 25N northward between 44W and 60W. Moderate to fresh winds are within 150 nm to the west of the surface trough from 24N to 30N. Gentle to moderate winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet from 15N northward from 60W eastward; from 6 feet to 8 feet between 60W and 70W, and from 26N northward between 70W and 75W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 70W westward, including near the Bahamas. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 50W eastward. Near-gale force winds are within 240 nm to the west of Africa from 16N to 23N, and within 45 nm on either side of the line 30N37W 26N30W. Fresh to strong winds are from 13N northward from 25W eastward, and to the north of the line 28N37W 24N28W. Moderate to fresh winds are from 50W eastward, and elsewhere from 20N southward. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. A cold front from 28N65W to the central Bahamas then is stationary to the Straits of Florida will dissipate from 27N65W to northwest Cuba late Sun into early Mon. A reinforcing cold front will move off NE Florida late Sun, then reach from Bermuda to southeast Florida by late Mon, then start to stall from 27N65W to central Cuba Tue through Wed. Meanwhile, northerly swell will continue to move through the waters E of the Bahamas into early next week, then subside Mon night through Tue. $$ mt/ec