000 AXNT20 KNHC 262106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W to 03N26W to 06N46W to near the border of Brazil and French Guiana near 04N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 10W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends into the Gulf of Mexico from the northern Florida Panhandle to 26N90W to across Veracruz, Mexico. Clouds with possible embedded showers are noted behind the front. The pattern remains fairly dry east of the front with no significant shower or thunderstorm activity noted at this time. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are being funneled along the coast of Mexico from near Tampico northward to the Texas border and west of the front. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh northerly winds follow the front elsewhere along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Light to gentle N-NE winds are noted ahead of the front along with mainly 2 to 4 ft seas, except 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from South Florida to just south of Veracruz, Mexico by Sat. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over the western Gulf through tonight. The western portion of the front will lift northward Sat night as low pressure develops along it, just offshore the South Texas coast, by Sun. The low will move into the south-central Gulf by Sun night, then dissipate Mon. The front will weaken as it moves southeast of the basin by late Mon or early Tue, ahead of a stronger front moving into the northern and western Gulf Sun. Looking ahead, the second front will stall from the southeastern Gulf to the south-central Gulf by late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front terminates in the northern Leeward Islands near 17N63W then continues as a remnant shear line through the eastern Caribbean south of Puerto Rico to the central Caribbean near 15N72W. Winds have diminished somewhat north of the shear line now at moderate to fresh levels including through and downwind of the Anegada and Mona Passages, as well as the Windward Passage. Isolated to scattered showers are possible near the shear line. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are located near the coast of Colombia and Panama south of 11N east of 82W. A surface trough is analyzed in the NW Caribbean from 20N82W to the northern coast of Honduras near 16N87W. Scattered showers are near the trough with isolated thunderstorms possible east of the trough offshore of the coast of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh winds are in the NW Caribbean from 16N to 20N between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas of 3 to 6 ft dominate the basin, locally to 8 ft near the NE Caribbean passages. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will prevail through the weekend. Moderate northerly swell will continue to move into Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands and into Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean into Sat. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Mon night or early Tue, then stall and dissipate. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1015 high pressure is centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda near 27N71W. A cold front has moved into the waters east of Florida extending from 31N76W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to strong westerly winds are found just ahead of and also behind the front with gale force winds north of 31N. Seas are building to 6 to 8 ft north of 29N between 75W and 80W. Mainly light winds prevail elsewhere south of 29N under the broad ridge with seas of 4 to 7 ft west of 65W in remnant N-NE swell. A stationary front is well east of 65W, reaching from 31N45W to 23N50W to near the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible north of 22N within 120 nm either side of the front, with additional deep tropical moisture being advected from the tropics ahead of it from 10N to 22N all the way to 40W. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are south of 26N within 90 nm west of the front, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds north of 20N within 120 nm east of the front. A cold front extends from near the coast of Morocco near 31N10W to south of the Canary Islands at 26N20W to 31N33W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are north of this boundary, along with large 8 to 14 ft seas in northerly swell. A broad ridge covers the remainder of the open waters of the tropical Atlantic between the fronts. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are found across these open waters, along with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low ash concentration can be found in the vicinity of the Volcano, although the cloud estimate is limited due to the cloud mask. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure east of the Bahamas will continue moving east tonight as a cold front moves off the NE Florida coast. By Sat, this front will stretch from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to near Miami, Florida. The front will then stall Sun and dissipate by Mon. A second cold front will move off NE Florida Sun night, then reach from Bermuda to southeast Florida by late Mon into early Tue, then start to stall from 28N65W to the Straits of Florida by Tue night. Meanwhile, northerly swell will continue to move into the waters northeast of the Virgin and Leeward Islands into early next week, then subside. $$ Lewitsky