000 AXNT20 KNHC 260848 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N30W 03N38W and 05N43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 22W and 28W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 20W and 38W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through south central Louisiana, to the Deep south of Texas at the border with Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate, are to the northwest of the line that runs from the Florida Panhandle, to 22N98W at the coast of Mexico. Rainshowers are elsewhere from 90W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb Atlantic Ocean 31N79W high pressure center, through central Florida, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Strong to near-gale force winds are to the northwest of the cold front. Moderate winds or slower wind speeds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 90W eastward, and from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. A cold front from near Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas will reach from Port Charlotte, Florida to 24N96W to Veracruz, Mexico by late Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front over the western Gulf through Fri, with near gale- force N winds possible nearshore from Brownsville, Texas, to Tampico, Mexico, overnight into Fri morning. It is likely for low pressure to develop in the western Gulf as the front stalls in this region over the weekend, and may bring fresh to locally strong winds over portions of the western and central Gulf Sun into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire Caribbean Sea, with a 10N ridge. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 15N northward from 62W westward. A cold front passes through 25N50W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 19N60W, to the eastern sections of Puerto Rico. The front continues as stationary, through Puerto Rico, to just to the south of Hispaniola, to 16N77W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet. Moderate to fresh winds are within 220 nm of the coast of Colombia, and within 240 nm of the southern coast of Cuba. Gentle to moderate wind speeds or slower, are elsewhere. An east-to-west oriented surface trough is in the coastal waters of Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 18N southward from 83W westward. The monsoon trough is along 10N from northern Colombia at 74W, southwestward, beyond the border areas of Panama and Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 60 nm on either side of the trough between Colombia and 80W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front from the Anegada Passage to near Jamaica will dissipate Fri, with fresh NE winds prevailing north of the boundary until then. Moderate N swell will continue to move into Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands and into Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N46W, to 25N50W, 19N60W, to the eastern sections of Puerto Rico. The front continues as stationary, through Puerto Rico, to just to the south of Hispaniola, to 16N77W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the SE of the cold front from 21N northward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 16N between 50W and 60W, to the east of an upper level trough that is associated with the frontal boundary. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other rainshowers are within 250 nm to the NW of the cold front, and from 20N northward between 30W and the cold front. Moderate to fresh winds are to the west and northwest of the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet from 10N southward between 40W and 50W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 30W eastward. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 30N29W, to 21N24W. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 25N42W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N northward from 24W eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N northward between 20W and 40W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet from 27N northward between 20W and 26W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh winds are from 24N northward from 24W eastward. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. Moderate to fresh NE winds along with large N swell follow a cold front reaching from 21N55W to the northern Leeward Islands. The winds will diminish as the front gradually stalls along 19N by Fri, then dissipates Fri night into Sat. The next cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Fri night, bringing strong W winds north of 29N Fri night into Sat. $$ mt/ec