000 AXNT20 KNHC 241057 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Nov 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 06N28W to 05N40W. A surface trough is along 47W from 01N to 08N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 03N to 09N between 11W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 35W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure extends across the entire basin with no significant convection noted. Overnight scatterometer data and surface obs show moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the eastern Gulf and the Texas coast. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast, as the cold front exited the basin, high pressure will continue shifting east. This will allow for fresh southerly winds to develop in the NW Gulf and the Florida Straits later today and into tonight. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast Thu, and reach from Tampa Bay, FL to Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front over the western Gulf Thu night into Fri night with near- gale force winds possible in the nearshore waters between Tampico and Brownsville. Winds will become light to gentle on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front continues to press south and east across the Caribbean, stretching from Haiti near 19N73W to southern Belize near 17N88W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Windward Passage and off the SE Hispaniola coast. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are occurring behind the front in the lee of Cuba. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean. Meanwhile, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is being enhanced by the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean, S of 16N between 73W and 82W. Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the basin with seas 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Hispaniola to Nicaragua this evening, then stall Thu from the Mona Passage to S of Jamaica and gradually dissipate by Sat. Fresh NE winds will occur behind the front, with strong winds possible S of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage this evening and into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico today through Fri and bring a potential for heavy rain. Moderate northerly swell will affect the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic waters Thu into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front continues to press eastward across the central Atlantic from 31N61W to 20N71W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along and east of the front, N of 20N and W of 55W. High pressure is building behind the front across the western Atlantic, anchored by a 1027 mb high in the Southeast United States. Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side of the front westward to the eastern Florida coast. Seas range 6 to 10 ft off the Florida coast and the Bahamas, with seas 12 to 14 ft N of 27N between 64W and 72W. An upper level trough is aiding in scattered moderate to strong convection in the eastern Atlantic N of 19N between 22W and 36W. Mostly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the central and eastern Atlantic with seas 6 to 10 ft. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to move eastward and reach from 31N53W to eastern Hispaniola this evening, then 31N47W to Puerto Rico by Thu evening. Fresh to strong winds will continue along the front N of 28N through Wed night. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build in off the coast of Georgia and northern Florida on Thu. The next cold front will push off the NE Florida coast on Fri and bring another round of through Fri night N of 29N $$ AReinhart