000 AXNT20 KNHC 240549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W, to 05N30W, and 05N40W. A surface trough is along 47W/48W from 07N southward. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate, and widely scattered to scattered strong, are within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 33W eastward, and from 07N to 08N between 39W and 41W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere, from 14N southward between 50W and 60W, and from 10N southward from 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, is moving eastward, through the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level ridge is along 99W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, through the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the SE coastal sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, and into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Precipitation: broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 23N southward from 92W westward. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 27N88W. Fresh to strong winds are in the eastern one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet. A cold front in the Bay of Campeche across the Yucatan Peninsula will move south of the region by tonight. High pressure will quickly move east allowing for fresh southerly winds to develop in the NW Gulf by Wed night, along with fresh E winds in the Florida Straits and adjacent SE Gulf. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast Thu, and reach from Tampa Bay,FL to Veracruz, Mexico by Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front over the far western Gulf Thu night into Fri night. Near-gale force winds are possible in the nearshore waters between Tampico and Brownsville late Thu night into Fri morning. Winds will diminish Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire Caribbean Sea, with a 10N ridge. A cold front passes through SE Cuba, through the NW Caribbean Sea, to the SE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate is between Jamaica and 80W, within 45 nm on either side of the cold front. Isolated moderate also is between the cold front and the NE coastal areas of Honduras. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from the cold front northward from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet from the cold front northward from 80W eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from the cold front northward. Moderate wind speeds cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N from northern Colombia at 74W, southwestward, beyond the border areas of Panama and Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to northern Belize. The front will reach from Haiti to Nicaragua by Wed, then stall Thu from the Mona Passage to S of Jamaica and gradually dissipate through the end of the week. Fresh NE winds will occur behind the front, with some locally strong winds possible S of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico late this week and bring a potential for heavy rain. Moderate northerly swell will affect the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic waters Thu into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N63W to 26N67W to 23N70W, beyond SE Cuba, into the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the east of the cold front from 25N northward. Isolated moderate is within 300 nm to the east of the cold front from 20N to 25N, and between the Bahamas and SE Cuba from 23N southward to the north of the cold front. Strong winds or faster are from 25N northward from the cold front westward, including from Andros Island northward, and from 29N northward between 55W and the cold front. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 16 feet from 26N northward between 70W and 80W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 25N northward between 45W and 70W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 53W eastward. A 1004 mb low pressure center and related frontal boundaries are to the north of 31N between 10W and 37W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between 20W and 40W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area from 10N to 20N from 50W eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 22N northward between 30W and 45W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The wind speeds are moderate or slower, elsewhere, in the Atlantic Ocean. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. A cold front extends from 31N63W to the Turks and Caicos Islands to eastern Cuba. The cold front will continue to move eastward and reach from 23N65W to Haiti Wed, then stall along 20N through the end of the week. N of 27N, strong S winds can be expected ahead of the front with strong NW winds behind it. N of 29N to the SE of Bermuda, NW gales will end by this evening. High pressure will build off the coast of Georgia and northern Florida on Thu, in the wake of the front. The next cold front is likely to bring fresh to strong winds Fri into Sat to waters north of 29N. $$ mt/ar