000 AXNT20 KNHC 231748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move offshore of Florida toward Bermuda through tonight. Strong to gale-force NW-N winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft will follow the front north of 29N late this morning through this evening. Winds will continue to be fresh to strong through Wednesday near the front with seas 11-14 ft. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 05N30W to 06N39W to 06N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 31W to 36W. Similar convection is from 03N to 08N between 38W to 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Straits near 24N80W to the southwestern Gulf near 22N96W where it transitions stationary to Veracruz, Mexico. No significant precipitation is noted along this boundary. High pressure is quickly building in behind the front with fresh to strong winds in the northeast and central Gulf where seas are 6 to 10 ft. In western Gulf winds are gentle with 4 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, the cold front extending from the Florida Straits to S of Veracruz, Mexico will move SE of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Higher pressure building north of the area behind the front, will maintain moderate to fresh winds through Wed night. Winds will briefly diminish across the basin Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of Texas by Thu night. This front will reach from Tampa Bay to S of Veracruz, Mexico, Fri evening before weakening. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front over the far western Gulf Thu night into Fri night, with near gale force winds possible in the nearshore waters between Tampico and Brownsville. Winds will diminish Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from central Cuba near 21N79W to the Gulf of Honduras near 17N87W. A prefrontal trough extends from eastern Cuba to the Cayman Islands. Showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm of the surface trough. The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection south of 12N between northern Colombia and Costa Rica. A scatterometer satellite pass from 1500 UTC revealed fresh N winds over the NW Caribbean north of the cold front, where seas are likely 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the cold front extending from central Cuba to the Gulf ofHonduras will be reinforced by a secondary cold front later today and the two will be merged from eastern Cuba to Honduras Wed. The front will then stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua Thu and dissipate Fri. Fresh N to NE winds are expected behind the front, with locally strong NE winds possible Thu in the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola. Moderate northerly swell will affect the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic waters beginning Thu afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Heavy rainfall following the front will affect Hispaniola and Puerto Rico beginning on Thursday and will persist as the front stalls through the latter part of the week. Eastern portions of Puerto Rico have the highest risk for moderate to heavy rainfall amounts. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the gale-force wind event expected today over the SW N Atlantic, north of 29N between Bermuda and 76W. At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N67W to central Cuba. A second cold front extends from 31N69W to the Florida Straits, continuing into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A pre-frontal trough east of the first front extends from 26N69W to E Cuba near 21N76W. Numerous moderate, with embedded isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are within 90 nm east of the pre-frontal trough, north of 20N. Strong to near gale force NW winds are occurring just off SE U.S. coast behind the second front, where seas are likely 7 to 9 ft. A scatterometer satellite pass noted strong to near-gale force SW winds occurring east of the first front to 62W, north of 25N, where seas are likely 6 to 8 ft. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N37W to 24N48W. A dissipating cold front extends from 31N25W to 25N32W. Another surface trough is analyzed southeast of this front from 18N34W to 15N42W. These surface features reside within a broad area of upper-level cyclonic flow, with a large upper-level low centered north of the area. Three pockets of scattered moderate convection are noted, from 25N-31N between 33W-43W, from 27N-31N between 20W- 25W, and from 20N-24N between 26W-30W. Generally moderate to fresh winds prevail across this area. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are likely occurring north of 27N between 42W-54W, with seas of 5 to 6 ft farther south, in the tropics. The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast, the two fronts will merge tonight from Bermuda through the Turks and Caicos Islands and into eastern Cuba. The combined front will the track eastward, with the southern portions stalling along 20N by Thu. N of 27N, strong S winds can be expected ahead of the front with strong NW winds behind it. Gales may develop today N of 29N, to the SW of Bermuda and continue through the evening. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build in off the coast of Georgia and northern Florida on Thu. The next cold front is likely to bring fresh to strong winds Fri and Fri night to waters north of 29N. $$ Mora