000 AXNT20 KNHC 222155 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move from offshore of Florida toward Bermuda through mid-week. Strong to gale-force NW-N winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft will follow the front north of 29N Tue. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 14N17W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from the equator to 06N between 28W and 43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 24W and 30W, and from 09N to 11N between 32W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the NE Gulf near Apalachee Bay to across the central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are possible north of 26N ahead of the front, with light precipitation occurring west of 92W and north of the front. Additional shower activity is possible in the southeast Gulf ahead of a preliminary cold front which extends from the central Florida Peninsula to the SW N Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong northerly winds are funneling up along the coast of northeast Mexico offshore with moderate to fresh northerly winds elsewhere behind the front. Seas are building behind the front, currently 5 to 7 ft from the Texas coastal waters to off northeast Mexico, and mainly 2 to 4 ft elsewhere as it is taking some time for them to build in the wake of the front. For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast out of the Gulf by early Tue. Strong NE winds are expected tonight into early Tue in the NE Gulf as well as along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz. High pressure is forecast to build in behind the front. Fresh southerly return flow will set up across the NW Gulf by the middle of the week ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach the Gulf waters by Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds are likely behind the front over the far western Gulf Thu night and Fri, with gale force winds possible Fri off the coast of Tampico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from Hispaniola near 18N72W to northern Colombia near 11N73W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 15N to 18N west of the trough to 75W. The monsoon trough extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean to across Panama into northern Colombia. Associated scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 12N between Colombia and Nicaragua, including across most of Panama and Costa Rica. Additional activity is located inland over northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are found in the central Caribbean where the pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the area and lower pressure over northern Colombia is tight. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail in the NW Caribbean, except 4 to 5 ft near and through the Yucatan Channel, with mainly moderate trades and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel this evening, become reinforced by a second front Tue, then stall from the Windward Passage to Jamaica to Nicaragua into late week. Behind the front, fresh NE winds are expected, with locally strong winds possible Thu in the Windward and Mona Passages. Moderate northerly swell will affect the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic waters beginning Thu night and Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on an upcoming gale-force wind event over the SW N Atlantic north of 29N between Bermuda and 75W. A cold front extends from 31N78W to near Cape Canaveral Florida. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N74W to across the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 27N and east of the trough to 68W, along with moderate to fresh southerly winds and 6 to 7 ft seas. Scattered showers are noted west of the trough to the northeast coast of Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere north of 27N and west of 65W, with gentle to moderate SE-S flow south of 27N and west of 65W. To the east, a trough extends from near the Canary Islands at 30N14W to 22N30W to 20N50W. Tropical moisture is noted within 420 nm behind the trough ahead of complex low pressure and attendant frontal system north of the area. Moderate to fresh winds are found north and west of the trough to 40W, along with 7 to 10 ft seas in northerly swell. Moderate to fresh winds and 6 to 10 ft seas in northerly swell prevail elsewhere north of 27N between 40W and 65W, with gentle to moderate winds north of 20N. Mainly gentle moderate trades prevail south of 15N, with light to moderate variable winds from 15N to 27N. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft south of 27N in mixed swell. The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front off the NE Florida coast will be reinforced by another cold front and will accelerate off the NE Florida coast tonight, and combine with the initial front by Tue night, from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba. The merged front will continue east into late week, while the southern portions becomes stationary near or just north of the Greater Antilles. Strong S to SW winds will develop tonight east of the initial cold front, mainly north of 27N, with strong NW winds developing behind the reinforcing cold front. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build in off the coast of Georgia and northern Florida on Thu. $$ Lewitsky