000 AXNT20 KNHC 191740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 29N83W to 26N92W to Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. Minimal gale force winds are ongoing near Veracruz and will continue through this evening. Seas will build to near 14 ft by tonight. The front will continue to move across the Gulf waters today, then stall from near Naples, Florida, to the Bay of Campeche this weekend before dissipating. Strong northerly winds and rough seas follow the front across the Gulf of Mexico today. Conditions in the Gulf are expected to improve by Sat into Sun. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ begins near 05N13W to 05N29W to 07N41W then resumes W of a surface trough near 07N44W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. The surface trough is located along the ITCZ from 10N41W to 05N44W. A second surface trough is north of the ITCZ from 16N29W to 07N35W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the ITCZ and second surface trough from 02N to 17N between 10W to 40W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the ITCZ from 05N to 08N between 43W to 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning that is in effect for waters near Veracruz, Mexico. At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 29N83W to 26N92W to Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southwest Gulf from 19N to 26N between 90W to 96W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northeast winds are noted north of the front with moderate to fresh winds south of the front. Seas in the western Gulf are 3-6 ft with upwards of 12 ft near the gale force winds. Seas are 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf. High pressure is quickly building behind the front with dry conditions following. For the forecast, the cold front will stall from near Naples, Florida, to the Bay of Campeche, before dissipating this weekend. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale force off Veracruz, Mexico today. Another cold front will enter the northwest Gulf early Mon, and move south of the basin Tue. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front. High pressure will build across the Gulf region in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most active convection in the Caribbean is located near the Nicaragua/Honduras coast from 12N to 18N and W of 79W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to sustain this convective activity. Scattered showers are also noted south of Jamaica and Hispaniola and across the central Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the eastern portions of the basin and light to gentle winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas 3-5 ft are noted across the basin with upwards of 9 ft near the fresh to strong winds in the central basin. For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will gradually diminish today across the east and central Caribbean as high pressure north of the area shifts east, ahead of a cold front moving off NE Florida. Winds and seas will further diminish early next week, ahead of a stronger cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico Mon. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel by late Mon night and extend from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... At 1500 UTC, a cold front began to press off the NE Florida coast from 31N79W to 30N81W. Fresh northeasterly winds are noted behind the front. A surface trough is located between South Florida and the Bahamas from 29N74W to 23N82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in this area from 24N to 28N between 72W and 80W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted near the trough with seas 3-6 ft. In the central Atlantic, a shearline stretches off the tail-end of a stationary front from 30N38W to 22N63W. Showers are occurring along this feature with fresh to strong winds north of the shearline. A surface trough is noted east of front and shearline from 29N33W to 17N40W with a 1014 mb low along the trough near 26N34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the low and trough from 24N to 31N between 24W to 37W. Gentle to moderate cyclonic winds are around the low with light to gentle winds south of 22N. A surface trough is also located to the east of the Lesser Antilles from 22N59W to 12N59W with no significant convection and gentle winds along it. Northerly swell, generated by a low pressure system located N of area, will reach the forecast waters late on Sat, building seas to 10-14 ft roughly N of 29N between 25W and 40W by Sun morning. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been active for two months(since 19 September 2021). Medium ash concentration is noted in the vicinity of the volcano, low elsewhere. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will stall across the northern forecast waters this weekend, before lifting north ahead of a stronger cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon. The second front will reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected behind the fronts. $$ AReinhart