000 AXNT20 KNHC 181003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Nov 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale-force NW-N winds will develop offshore of Veracruz Fri afternoon behind a cold front that will move through the basin. Seas will build to around 15 ft with the gale-force winds. Conditions should diminish below gale-force Fri evening. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extending to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 02N24W to 04N34W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 04N42W to 02N49W. The surface trough extends from 09N35W to 01N41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 11N and between 22W to 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in effect near Veracruz, Mexico. High pressure is retreating eastward early this morning, allowing a cold front to approach the Texas coast from the NW. Deep moisture and broad scale lift in advance of the cold front is leading to scattered convection over E Gulf of Mexico, mainly E of 91W. Fresh E winds prevail over the Florida Straits and far SE Gulf, otherwise gentle moderate winds dominate. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the SE Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will move into the NW Gulf today, strong winds and rough seas will follow the front over the western and portions of the northern Gulf, reaching gale force off Veracruz Fri. The front will stall from near Naples, Florida, to the Bay of Campeche this weekend, before dissipating. Looking ahead, another front will move into the northwest Gulf early Mon, and reach from southwest Florida to the southwest Gulf by late Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends along the coast of The Yucatan Peninsula southward into the Gulf of Honduras. This trough combined with deep moisture and divergence aloft is leading to scattered moderate convection for areas N of 19N and W of 83W. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, dry conditions prevail. The pressure gradient between the strong subtropical ridge near Bermuda and lower pressures across N South America result in fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, including the Windward and Mona Passages, and the NW Caribbean N of 20N. The highest winds are likely occurring S of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, winds are mainly moderate to fresh. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are occurring in the area of strong winds, with 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere, except 2 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish through Fri as high pressure north of the area shifts east, ahead of a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Winds and seas further diminish early next week, ahead of a second cold front moving through the Gulf late Mon and Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N46W and extends to 23N66W, where it transitions to a shear line that continues across the central Bahamas. Convection along the front is all now N of 31N. Fresh to locally strong winds are occurring north of the cold front and shear line, extending to 30N. Fresh trades are also present S of 22 and W 55W, with strong winds occurring between Haiti and Great Inagua in the SE Bahamas, at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas of 6-10 ft are present to the W of the cold front and shear line, with the highest seas occurring N of 29N and between 50W and 58W. Farther east, a 1012 mb low pressure is near 24N33W. A weakening surface trough associated with the low pressure extends from the low to 21N40W. Scattered moderate convection has developed E of the low, from 21N to 28N between 23W and 29W. Fresh easterly winds are observed N of 28N and between 22W and 29W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft prevail in the central and E tropical Atlantic. Moderate or weaker winds and fairly tranquil weather conditions are present elsewhere. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast, the shear line will dissipate today in advance of a cold front that will move off the NE Florida coast Fri. The front will stall from east of Bermuda through South Florida this weekend, before lifting N ahead of a strong from that will move off the NE Florida coast late Mon. The second front will reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Tue night. $$ KONARIK