000 AXNT20 KNHC 161556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 07N29W, then resumes W of a surface trough from 05N34W to 04N42W. A surface trough is along 31W from 04N-10N. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 06N-09N between 20W-25W. Scattered showers are along the surface trough south of 08N. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure positioned in the NE Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Panhandle maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh winds are occurring in the SE Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits, where seas are 4-6 ft. Moderate southerly winds are offshore the Texas and northern Mexico coast, with 2-4 ft seas in the area. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure centered offshore the Florida Panhandle will move east and strengthen today. Fresh to strong east winds will develop over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida through Thu. A cold front will move through the Gulf waters Thu night through Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong NE winds, highest offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected ahead of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from Central Cuba near 22N80W to 21N82W. A surface trough continues from 21N82W to 17N87W in the Gulf of Honduras. Total precipitable water imagery shows a significant amount of moisture in the western Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over water from 12N-20N between 80W-88W. ASCAT shows fresh to strong E trade winds covering most of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are northwest of the surface trough and front. Seas are 5-7 ft across the basin. The highest seas of 7 to 8 ft are noted offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. For the forecast, the weakening stationary front will dissipate today. As it does, high pressure building in from the north will cause winds to increase across the basin, with strong winds expected offshore Colombia and south of Hispaniola. A cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches from 31N 61.5W to 25N73W, then transitions to a stationary front and continues into central Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm ahead of the front, N of 29N. Moderate NE winds are occurring to the N and W of the front, with fresh winds over the Bahamas and Florida Straits. A weakening surface trough extends along 58/59W from 19N-28N with no significant associated convection. To the south of 23N, fresh NE to E winds are occurring within about 180 nm E of the trough axis. An upper-level low is producing scattered showers and tstorms from 10N-19N between 41W-53W. The showers in this area are also being enhanced by a surface trough that extends from 12N45W to 14N42W. Farther east, a 1014 mb low pressure is near 29N32W. An associated weakening cold front stretches ahead of this low from 31N26W to 28N26W to 22N34W, with a surface trough then continuing to 21N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 28N between 23W-29W. Strong winds and seas of 10 to 12 ft are likely occurring within 150 nm NW of the low pressure center. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 7-9 ft prevail over the tropical Atlantic from 10N-23N between 33W-60W. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast, the front that currently extends from 31N61W to 22N80W will extend from 31N50W to 24N65W, and stationary to the Central Bahamas by Wed evening as strong high pressure builds in to the N and W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the stationary front will lead to increasing east winds and building seas south of about 28N from Wed through late Thu. This front will extend from 31N37W to 24N48W by early Fri, with strong N to NE winds following the front. Looking ahead, a cold front will move offshore NE Florida Fri, then stall from Bermuda to central Cuba over the weekend. This front will be followed by fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas north and northeast of the Bahamas. $$ Hagen