000
AXNT20 KNHC 141024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 09N13W to 06N22W to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N30W to 06N36W and to 04N41W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 200 nm on both sides of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved SE of the basin overnight, leaving the Gulf
free of precipitation. High pressure of 1023 mb centered in SW
Louisiana is building into the northern Gulf. Mainly gentle to
moderate N winds prevail throughout the Gulf, with seas of 3 to 6
ft.

In the wake of a cold front, high pressure will continue to build
into the northern Gulf early this week. As the ridge builds 
south, winds will increase in the SE Gulf into mid-week, with 
fresh to locally strong winds possible in the Florida Straits Tue 
through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front stretches from western Cuba to Belize. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 16N to 22N W
of 83W. Elsewhere across the basin, generally moderate trades and
dry conditions prevail. Sea are 2 to 5 ft.

The monsoon trough is along 09N from the Costa Rica-Panama border
to northern Colombia. localized winds N of this trough offshore
Colombia are fresh to strong. Seas in this zone of higher wind are
6 to 8 ft.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh trades into 
tonight over the south-central Caribbean, with pulses to strong 
off NE Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. 
A weak cold front in the far NW Carribbean will stall tonight from
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras, then dissipate Tue. Moderate to 
fresh NE winds are likely behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N26W to 20N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within about 120 nm either side of this front.
N of the front, fresh to strong NE winds prevail with seas of 11
to 14 ft. To the south and east of this cold front, generally
moderate trades prevail with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

Another cold front stretches from 32N71W to the NW Bahamas to
western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 27N
between 64W and 68W. Winds are light to gentle on both sides of
this front and seas W of 60W are 2 to 4 ft. 

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the 
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. 
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing 
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by 
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast, a cold front will slide east through early this
week, before stalling Wed from around 31N50W to the Turks and 
Caicos Islands. As this front stalls, moderate to fresh ENE winds 
will increase north of the boundary into late week. 

$$
KONARIK