000 AXNT20 KNHC 130958 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N24W to 05N35W. The ITCZ continues from 05N35W to 03N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of these features. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has moved SE of the basin overnight. Another cold front has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico, and stretches from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas-Mexico border. Fresh to strong winds are occuring N of this second front, with gentle to moderate NE winds elsewhere. No significant convection is occurring in the Gulf, and seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 5 to 7 ft N of the front in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, a cold front will bring strong winds and rough seas to parts of the NW and north-central Gulf into tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front for Sunday into Monday will lead to fresh NE winds over the SE Gulf for the first half of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is noted from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Convection previously associated with this weakening front as dissipated overnight. The monsoon trough is along 09N from Panama to Colombia, with little associated weather. Fresh to locally strong winds are ocurring offshore Colombia, otherwise gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 5 to 7 ft N of Colombia in the south-central Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds into tonight over the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. As the high gradually shifts east, a series of weak cold fronts will enter the northwest Caribbean, then stall and dissipate from Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras through mid-week. Some fresh NE winds can be expected behind these fronts ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N32W to 22N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of this front E of 44W. A surface trough extends from 26N37W to 15N35W. N of this front, fresh to strong NE winds prevail with seas of 8 to 12 ft. To the west, a cold front passes from 32N73W through the NW Bahamas and into western Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with this front is noted N of 25N between 68W and 75W. Ahead of this front, moderate to fresh SE winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Mainly gentle W winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail to the W. S of 22N, generally moderate trades prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 60W, the cold front will drift E. Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight and merge with the initial front Sun. The combined front, reinforcement by yet another cold front, will stall later Mon from near Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and into Cuba into mid-week. $$ KONARIK