000 AXNT20 KNHC 120555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near the border with Sierra Leone, to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W, to 06N25W, 04N40W, to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 210 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 36W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 36W eastward. from 10N southward between 20W and 28W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, through the Deep South of Texas, to NE Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 90W eastward. Moderate winds are to the north of the cold front, in the Straits of Florida and in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, within 90 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and within 180 nm to the north of the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gentle winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet between the cold front and Louisiana and Texas. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere. A cold front in the NW Gulf of Mexico will move through the basin then stall just SE of the area into Sat. A reinforcing front will follow closely behind the first front, entering the northern Gulf Fri night, then moving across the basin into Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure building across the northern Gulf Sun, will strengthen into Mon supporting fresh winds over the southeast and south-central Gulf. The high pressure will shift east of the region Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level southerly wind flow, and isolated moderate precipitation, are from 14N northward from Jamaica westward. The wind flow and the precipitation are on the periphery of large-scale upper level Gulf of Mexico cyclonic wind flow with a trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from northern Colombia at 74W beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent only with the monsoon trough. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 78W eastward. Strong NE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 76W. Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from 78W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds are in the remainder of the area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet mostly, with some occasional areas of 3 feet to 5 feet. High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea, with occasionally locally strong winds possible off Colombia at night. The high pressure will shift east Fri, ahead of a cold front that will stall in the Yucatan Channel Sat, then dissipate. A second front will move into the northwest Gulf Sun then stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Mon. Looking ahead, the front will shift eastward into the Windward Passage into Tue as reinforcing high pressure builds north of the area behind a third front moving through the western Atlantic. This pattern will support fresh NE winds across parts of the northwest Caribbean Sea Mon and Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N42W, to 24N58W. A surface trough continues from 24N58W to 22N70W and 23N75W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 27N northward between 36W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 67W westward. Upper level SW wind flow is moving on top of the area of the isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation. The upper level SW wind flow is on the eastern side of a large-scale trough that is in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the waters that are from 17N northward from 32W eastward. A surface trough is along 33W/35W from 19N to 28N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 16N northward between 30W and 40W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 22N19W, based on the recent scatterometer data. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. Fresh to strong winds, are to the north of the cold front and surface trough, and to the north of Hispaniola and Cuba. Sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet are to the north of the line that passes through 33N31W 26N40W 19N53W, to the Windward Channel. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Moderate to fresh winds are from 07N to 19N from 56W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. High pressure as moved E of the area this evening, ahead of a cold front that will move off the NE Florida coast Fri morning. This front will stall from near 31N72W to central Cuba Saturday. A second cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast later Sat, then merge with the front and stall from Bermuda through eastern Cuba Sun. Looking ahead, a third, stronger front will move off the northeast Florida coast late Sun night, eventually overtaking the stalled front, and will stall from 27N65W to the Windward Passage late Mon and Tue. $$ mt/nr