000 AXNT20 KNHC 100604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a powerful non-tropical low pressure system located more than 400 miles northeast of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that hurricane-force winds are occurring south of the center. However, the low is still interacting with a frontal boundary, and the system has not yet acquired enough tropical cyclone characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm. Additional development is still possible during the next day or two, and a subtropical storm could form during this time. Thereafter, the system is forecast to move over colder water and be absorbed by a larger non-tropical low. This system has a medium chance of development in the next 48 hours. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service which can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 08N16W, and 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W, to 05N20W, 04N30W, 04N35W, and 02N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 14W and 25W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb east central Alabama high pressure center, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate anticyclonic winds cover the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet. A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Wed promoting gentle to moderate NE to E winds. Southerly return flow will set up across the NW Gulf on Wed night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the region on Thu. The front will remain nearly stationary over the northern Gulf on Fri. Reinforcing high pressure will push the front across the Gulf on Sat, reaching the SE part of the basin by Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, just off the coast of El Salvador. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 10N to NW Cuba between 80W and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough cuts across Hispaniola. A shear axis curves southwestward, from Jamaica to the coastal waters of western Panama. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation are between 73W and 78W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from northern Colombia at 74W beyond parts of western Panama. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in individual clusters covers the water areas and land areas from 14N between 77W and Costa Rica. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 16N southward between 70W and 78W; and from 17N northward to Cuba between 77W and 83W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 70W eastward, and from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet between 70W and 80W. A shearline extends from Jamaica to the SW Caribbean Sea near 10N81W. Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist between the shearline and the coast of Nicaragua through early Wed morning. As high pressure builds north of the Caribbean Sea, expect fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Venezuela beginning tonight. These winds will likely persist through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N59W, to 23N70W, to 22N75W in the waters that are between the Bahamas and Cuba. A surface trough is within 90 nm to 180 nm to the E and ESE of the cold front. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 180 nm to 360 nm to the ESE of the cold front and surface trough. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the waters that are from 10N northward between 20W and 40W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation are from 10N northward from 40W eastward. A surface trough extends from 06N to 10N between 38W and 39W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 08N to 10N between 37W and 40W. A surface ridge passes through 31N25W to 24N31W to 22N59W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N northward from 59W eastward. Strong winds and faster are from 29N northward between 54W and 67W. Fresh winds are from 27N northward between 50W and 72W, with the cold front and surface trough combination. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from 29N12W to 23N18W; within 300 nm on either side of 20N20W 10N33W; within 120 nm on either side of 12N42W 08N50W; and from Cuba and Hispaniola to 29N from 71W westward. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 13 feet from the cold front northward between the cold front and 75W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, to the east of the cold front and surface trough combination. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The cold front currently near 31N58W will continue moving E tonight into Thu. Large seas follow the front covering the waters N of 21N. The front will remain in the SE waters while gradually weakening. These seas will subside gradually during the next couple of days. The next cold front will move off NE Florida on Fri, then stall. Reinforcing high pressure will push the front across the region on Sat. $$ MT/Torres