320 AXNT20 KNHC 071757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Nov 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Wanda has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone and is centered near 40.2N 33.5W at 07/1500 UTC or 330 nm WNW of the Azores and moving NE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 80 nm of the center. Wanda is currently interacting with a cold front and expected to be absorbed by it on Monday. For more information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. West Atlantic Gale Warning: As of 07/1500 UTC a 999 mb low pressure is centered near 32N76W about 290 nm ENE of the Georgia- Florida border. Strong to gale-force ESE to NW winds are found near and S of the center, N of 28N between 72W and 81W. Seas are peaking between 16 and 19 ft in this area. As this low gradually moves eastward over the next couple of days, both winds and seas should begin to subside starting early Mon morning but frequent gusts to gale force along with seas above 12 ft will persist through Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough stays over the African continent. An ITCZ extends westward from 05N18W through 04N34W to the coast of NE Brazil near 03N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the ITCZ from 04N to 11N between 24W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection is seen farther W from 01N to 05N between 37W and the coast of Brazil. Similar conditions are also present farther E from 03N to 09N between 16W and 22W. The E Pacific monsoon trough is producing numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms over Costa Rica and Panama, and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough near 22N91W is triggering scattered showers over the S central Gulf, including the N Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, a 1026 mb high pressure centered near the Texas-Louisiana border is dominating the W and central Gulf with light to gentle NE to ENE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft. Moderate with locally fresh NNW to N winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the E Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through midweek. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the E Gulf will continue through Mon night and become gentle by Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends southwestward from E central Cuba to NE Nicaragua. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm are occurring near and up to 80 nm SE of the front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin. Recent satellite scatterometer and altimetery data show moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NNE winds over the NW basin, behind the stationary front with seas at 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present across the S central basin, N of Colombia and Venezuela. Mainly gentle NE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the stationary front will linger in this region through Tue. Fresh northerly winds and seas up to 6 ft will persist across the NW Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast Mon after the frontal passage and become fresh by Tue. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected across the E and central Caribbean today. Expect moderate trades to resume by midweek across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning off the Georgia-NE Florida coast. A cold front extends southwestward from a 1008 mb low pressure ENE of Bermuda near 34N70W across 31N70W and the central Bahamas to E central Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are found near and up to 100 nm SE of the front. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident S of Bermuda, N of 28N between 63W and 69W. Farther E, an mid to upper-level low well SSW of Azores near 28N34W is producing scattered moderate convection N of 18N between 30W and 39W. Convergent trade winds are generating scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Guyana-Venezuela border and nearby waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the basin. Moderate to fresh SSE to WSW with locally strong winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are present near the cold front, N of 22N between 59W and 72W. Fresh to strong NE winds with seas of 9 to 12 ft dominate waters near the Canary Islands, N of 23N between the NW African coast and 20W. N of 20N, light to gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted between 20W and 59W. Gentle to moderate ENE to NE trades with seas at 4 to 6 ft exist from 08N to 20N between the African coast and the Lesser Antilles/S American coast. Gentle to moderate E to SE trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, gale force winds are still noted on either side of the front mainly N of 29N. These winds are forecast to persist through Mon. The cold front will extend from 31N67W to E Cuba this evening, and from 31N62W to near the Windward passage by Mon evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds with gusts to gale force will continue N of 27N between 65W and 70W through Mon night. Conditions will begin to improve for the areas N of 28N by Tue morning as moderate winds prevail through Thu. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ Chan