000 AXNT20 KNHC 071033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 38.5N 35.5W at 07/0900 UTC or 400 nm W of the Azores moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends outward 120 nm in the S semicircle. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Wanda is forecast to merge with a frontal system tonight and dissipate by late Monday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. West Atlantic Storm Warning: As of 07/0900 UTC a 999 mb low pressure is centered near 31N 77W. An occluded front extends ENE from the low with the cold front extending from 31N71W to east- central Cuba near 21N77W. Overnight ASCAT pass from showed that gale force winds are located north of 29N between 77W- 81W. Winds as high as 40-50 kt are closer in to the low center, north of 29.5N and east of 80W. Seas are estimated to be 12 to 20 ft in the area. The storm conditions will persist until sunrise this morning. After sunrise, any storm force winds should diminish to gale force as the low moves toward the ENE today. Gale force winds should then persist north of 29N between 74W-79W through tonight. Seas will begin to gradually subside starting late tonight or early Mon, but will remain 8-12 ft north and NE of the Bahamas through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 04N35W to 05N47W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted near the ITCZ from 02N-11N between 16W- 39W and from 03N-09N and W of 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high pressure is centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. No significant precipitation is noted over the Gulf of Mexico. Overnight ASCAT wind data shows fresh N winds over the eastern Gulf, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate NE winds prevail over the western Gulf, with 2 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf waters and will remain over the basin through midweek. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the eastern Gulf will continue through Mon night and become gentle by Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from east-central Cuba near 21N78W to eastern Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front S of 18N, impacting waters near Honduras and Nicaragua. Overnight ASCAT data showed mainly fresh N winds covering the NW Caribbean to the NW of the front, with locally strong winds possible in any convection. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for fresh in the south- central Caribbean, south of 14N between 68W- 75W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft NW of the cold front and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will linger as a stationary front in the region through Tue. Fresh northerly winds and seas to 6 ft will persist across the NW Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast Mon after the frontal passage and become fresh by Tue. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean today. Expect moderate trades to resume by midweek across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the Storm Warning off the Georgia-NE Florida coast. A cold front extends SSW from 31N72W to east-central Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection prevails within 180 nm east of the front, N of 22N between 60W and 74W. ASCAT pass from overnight showed strong or greater wind speeds west of the front and north of 27N. Fresh S to SW winds extend east of the front to 65W, mainly north of 27N. Seas are 8 ft or higher north of the Bahamas and west of 70W. A 1020 mb high pressure is near 31N46W. Gentle winds prevail from 20N-31N between 30W-60W, with 3 to 5 ft seas. An upper-level trough in the eastern Atlantic is inducing scattered moderate tstorms from 20N- 31N between 29W- 38W. Strong NE winds prevail north of 25N and east of 20W, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Fresh trades are noted from the ITCZ to 13N between 37W-60W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will extend from 31N67W to eastern Cuba this evening, and from 31N62W to near the Windward passage by Mon evening. Frequent gusts to storm force are expected to continue across the waters N of 29N and W of 80W through early this morning. Gale force winds will persist N of 28N W of 70W today through Mon night. Fresh to strong northerly winds with gusts to gale force will continue N of 27N between 65W and 70W through Mon night. Conditions will begin to improve for the areas N of 28N by Tue morning as moderate winds prevail through Thu. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ AReinhart