000 AXNT20 KNHC 070514 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 37.8N 36.8W at 07/0300 UTC or 465 nm W of the Azores moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends outward 120 nm in the S semicircle. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. After that time, Wanda is expected to merge with a frontal system tonight and dissipate late Monday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. West Atlantic Storm Warning: As of 07/0300 UTC a 1002 mb low pressure is centered near 30.5N 78.5W. An occluded front extends ENE from the low to a triple point near 32N73W. A cold front extends SSW from 32N73W to east-central Cuba near 22N77.5W. A recent ASCAT pass from Saturday evening shows that gale force winds are located north of 29N between 77W-81W. Winds as high as 40-50 kt are closer in to the low center, north of 29.5N and east of 80W. Seas are estimated to be 12 to 20 ft in the area. The storm conditions will persist until sunrise this morning. After sunrise, any storm force winds should diminish to gale force as the low moves toward the ENE today. Gale force winds should then persist north of 29N between 74W-79W through tonight. Seas will begin to gradually subside starting late tonight or early Mon, but will remain 8-12 ft north and NE of the Bahamas through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: The latest ASCAT pass shows a continuation of gale force NNE winds of 30-35 kt across the waters offshore of Morocco, north of 30N and east of 12W. The gales will end soon, around 07/0600 UTC, according to the latest forecast from Meteo-France. Seas will be 9 to 12 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 10N21W. The ITCZ continues from 10N21W to 06N26W to 04N44W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-10N between 11W-28W and from 02N-07N between 33W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high pressure is centered over Arkansas. No significant precipitation is noted over the Gulf of Mexico. The latest ASCAT wind data shows fresh N winds over the eastern Gulf, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Moderate NE winds prevail over the western Gulf, with 2 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high pressure over Arkansas and a low pressure located E of northern Florida will support moderate to fresh northerly winds across the eastern Gulf through Mon. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. A ridge will persist over the Gulf region trough at least Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from east-central Cuba near 21N78W to eastern Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm ahead of the front and extends 120 nm behind the front, including over portions of eastern Cuba, NW Jamaica and near the E tip of Honduras. A recent ASCAT data pass shows mainly fresh N winds covering the NW Caribbean to the NW of the front, with locally strong winds possible in any strong shower or thunderstorm. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for fresh in the south-central Caribbean, south of 14N between 68W-75W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft NW of the cold front and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the front is forecast to reach from the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean near 10N82W by Mon morning when it will begin to stall. The fresh northerly winds and building seas will spread across the NW Caribbean through early this week following the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast Mon through Tue after the frontal passage. High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the Storm Warning off the Georgia-NE Florida coast and on the Gale Warning offshore of Morocco. A cold front extends SSW from 31N73W to east-central Cuba near 22N77.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection prevails within 360 nm east of the front. ASCAT passes from Saturday evening show strong or greater wind speeds west of the front and north of 27N. Fresh S to SW winds extend east of the front to 65W, mainly north of 27N. Seas are 8 ft or higher north of the Bahamas and west of 70W. A 1021 mb high pressure is near 31N49W. Gentle winds prevail from 20N-31N between 30W-60W, with 3 to 5 ft seas. An upper-level trough extends southwestward from an upper-level low centered near 29N34W. This is inducing scattered moderate tstorms from 21N-31N between 29W-37W. Strong NE winds prevail north of 25N and east of 20W, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Fresh trades are noted from the ITCZ to 13N between 37W-60W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will extend from 31N70W to the Windward passage by tonight. Gale force winds will persist N of 28N W of 70W through tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds with gusts to gale force will continue N of 27N between 65W and 77W through Tue. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ Hagen