156 AXNT20 KNHC 061044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 37.4N 38.3W at 06/0900 UTC or 540 nm W of the Azores moving S at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the center in the E semicircle and 30 nm W semicircle. A further decrease in forward speed is expected to continue this morning. A sharp turn toward the northeast is forecast to occur by this afternoon, followed by acceleration toward the northeast tonight, with that motion continuing on Sunday and Monday. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Atlantic Storm Warning and Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 06/0900 UTC a 1006 mb low pressure is located in the Atlantic about 60 nm ENE of Cape Canaveral Florida near 29N81W. A warm front extends east-northeastward from the low. A cold front extends SW from this low to the Florida Keys and western Cuba near 23N82W. Overnight ASCAT wind data from late Friday evening show gale force N to NE winds of 35 to 45 kt located north of the first low and the warm front, north of 29N and west of 77.5W to the coast of northern Florida. Buoy 41117 located 10 nm offshore of St. Augustine Florida is measuring 13 ft seas at 0800 UTC. Seas of 12-16 ft are likely occurring offshore of NE Florida within the gale force wind area. The ASCAT data also showed gale force winds around 35 kt in the Gulf of Mexico from 27.5N-29.5N and east of 84W to the coast of Florida. Buoy 42003 in the Gulf of Mexico near 25.9N 85.6W is measuring winds NNE 19 kt gusting to 23 kt with wave heights of 10 ft at 0900 UTC. As the low continues moving to the northeast, expect the gales to end in the Gulf of Mexico this morning. The low in the Atlantic is will continue to deepen with storm force winds persisting through much of the day, north of 29N and west of 79W. Storm force winds will end by Sun afternoon W of 77W, but gales will continue offshore of NE Florida through at least Sunday. Seas are forecast to build to 20 ft in the Gulf Stream this weekend offshore of NE Florida. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: ASCAT data from around 05/2100 UTC show gale force N winds occurring in the marine zone Agadir north of 30N and within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco. Meteo-France is forecasting gale force winds to continue in this area through at least 07/0600 UTC. Seas will be around 12 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends along 06N between 16W-50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 03N to 09N between 17W-43W. Scattered showers are seen north of the ITCZ between 43W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more information about the gale warning for the NE Gulf. High pressure is moving in over the NW Gulf in the wake of the front in the eastern Gulf. Overnight ASCAT pass has strong N winds east of 87W and fresh N winds east of 92W. Seas are more than 8 ft east of 87W, and 6 to 8 ft between 87W and 92W. Mainly moderate N or NE winds cover the western Gulf of Mexico with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle NE to E winds are off the Texas coast, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, a cold front extends from the central Florida coast near 26N82W to western Cuba near 23N83W. Gusts to gale force are expected to continue across portions of the eastern Gulf through early this morning, becoming fresh to strong through the rest of the day. Winds and seas will diminish over the eastern Gulf tonight into Sun as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from western Cuba near 22N84W to central Belize near 18N88W. A surface trough stretches from 20N81W to 12N83W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen well east of the front between Nicaragua Cuba, including the Cayman Islands area to the western tip of Jamaica from 12N to 20N between 75W to 85W. Overnight ASCAT shows fresh NW to N winds to the NW of the front, while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere west of 75W. ASCAT shows fresh trades in the south- central Caribbean, with moderate winds elsewhere east of 75W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the open waters of the eastern and central Caribbean, and 1 to 3 ft over the western Caribbean. The exception is behind the front, where seas of 5 to 7 ft are building southward through the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the cold front stretches from western Cuba to central Belize. Fresh N winds continue near the Yucatan channel and spreading across the NW Caribbean. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by this afternoon, from central Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by tonight and from the Windward Passage to southern Nicaragua by Sun. The fresh northerly winds and building seas will spread across the NW Caribbean through early next week following the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast Mon through Tue after the frontal passage. High pressure over the Atlantic continues to support moderate to locally fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the Storm Warning off the NE Florida coast and for the Gale Warning in effect offshore of Morocco. As of 06/0900 UTC, a 1006 mb low is located near 28N80W with a warm front stretching east from the low to 31N79W. The cold front remains over Florida at this time. A surface trough extends along and east of the northern Bahamas from 29N72W to 26N78W. Scattered moderate convection is in the area N of 22N and west of 65W. Strong SE winds are in between the surface trough and the low/warm front. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 29N54W to 23N52W with no significant convection. Another trough extends from 31N37W to 27N40W with isolated thunderstorms within 60nm E of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds persist across the remainder of the Atlantic, north of 20N and west of 25W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Fresh trades are east of the Lesser Antilles from 07N-14N and west of 43W. Fresh to strong winds cover portions of the NE Atlantic north of 20N and east of 20W. For the forecast west of 65W, the low is expected to move N of the forecast area by tonight with the cold front from 31N77W to central Cuba, and from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sun night. Gale force winds, with frequent gusts to storm force, are expected to continue across the waters N of 28N and W of 77W through Sun morning. The pressure gradient between the gale center and high pressure over the NE of United States will also support gusts to gale force winds N of 30N between 77W and 80W through Sun night. Fresh to strong winds with gusts to gale force will continue between 77W and 65W through Tue. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ AReinhart