000 AXNT20 KNHC 060553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 38.0N 38.1W at 06/0300 UTC or 525 nm W of the Azores moving S at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the center in the E semicircle and 90 nm W semicircle. A decrease in forward speed is expected this morning, followed by a turn toward the northeast later today and a faster northeastward motion on Sunday and Monday. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Wanda is expected to become extratropical Sunday night. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Atlantic Storm Warning and Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 06/0300 UTC...or 11pm EDT Friday night...a 1009 mb low pressure is located in the Atlantic about 50 nm ENE of Cape Canaveral Florida near 29N80W. A warm front extends east-northeastward from the low. A stationary front extends SW from this low to another 1009 mb low pressure located near Ft. Myers Florida. A cold front extends SW from this low to the western tip of Cuba. Recent ASCAT wind data from late Friday evening show gale force N to NE winds of 35 to 45 kt located north of the first low and the warm front, north of 29N and west of 77.5W to the coast of northern Florida. Buoy 41117 located 10 nm offshore of St. Augustine Florida is measuring 12 ft seas at 0400 UTC. Seas of 12-16 ft are likely occurring offshore of NE Florida within the gale force wind area. The ASCAT data also show gale force winds around 35 kt in the Gulf of Mexico from 27.5N-29.5N and east of 84W to the coast of Florida. Buoy 42003 in the Gulf of Mexico near 25.9N 85.6W is measuring winds NNE 23 kt gusting to 27 kt with wave heights of 13 ft at 0400 UTC...midnight local time. As the lows move slowly northeastward, expect the gales to end in the Gulf of Mexico later this morning. The main low in the Atlantic is expected to deepen this morning just offshore of NE Florida. Expect storm force winds to 50 kt to develop near the low early this morning and persist through much of the day, north of 29N and west of 79W. Storm force winds will end by late tonight, but gales will continue offshore of NE Florida through at least Sunday, as the low pressure moves slowly and erratically. Seas are forecast to build to 20 ft in the Gulf Stream this weekend offshore of NE Florida. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: ASCAT data from around 05/2100 UTC show gale force N winds occurring in the marine zone Agadir north of 30N and within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco. Expect gale force winds to continue in this area through at least 07/0000 UTC, according to Meteo-France. Seas will be around 12 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends along 06N between 16W-50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ between 27W-34W. Scattered showers are seen north of the ITCZ between 41W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more information about the gale warning for the NE Gulf. High pressure is moving in over the NW Gulf in the wake of the low and front. The latest ASCAT pass has strong N winds east of 87W and fresh N winds east of 92W. Seas are more than 8 ft east of 87W, and 6 to 8 ft between 87W and 92W. Mainly moderate N or NE winds cover the southwest Gulf of Mexico with 5 to 7 ft seas, as gentle NE to E winds are off the Texas coast, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the low and cold front will exit the eastern Gulf before sunrise this morning. Gale force winds over the far eastern Gulf will end by mid-morning today. Winds and seas will diminish over the eastern Gulf this afternoon through Sun as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from western Cuba near 22N84.5W to northern Belize near 18N88W. A surface trough is along 82W from 12N-20N. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen well east of the front between NE Honduras and eastern Cuba, including the Cayman Islands area to the western tip of Jamaica. ASCAT shows fresh NW to N winds to the NW of the front, while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere west of 75W. ASCAT shows fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean, with moderate winds elsewhere east of 75W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the open waters of the eastern and central Caribbean, and 1 to 3 ft over the western Caribbean. The exception is behind the front, where seas of 5 to 8 ft are building southward through the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to northern Nicaragua by this evening and stall by Sun. The fresh northerly winds will continue spreading across the NW Caribbean through the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast Mon and Mon night after the frontal passage. High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to support moderate to locally fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 06/0300 UTC, a cold front enters the area near 31N67W and extends to 30N72W. A warm front is from 30N72W to 1009 mb low pressure near 29N80W. A stationary front extends SW from the low to Ft. Myers Florida. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N66W to 25N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is north of 22N and west of 67W. Winds to 45 kt are occurring offshore NE Florida near the low pressure. Please see the Special Features section above for details about the storm warning east of NE Florida. Strong SE winds are in between the surface trough and the low/warm front. Gentle to moderate winds persist across the remainder of the Atlantic, north of 20N and west of 25W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Isolated tstorms north of 26N between 27W-31W are associated with a surface trough. Fresh trades are east of the Lesser Antilles from 07N-14N and west of 43W. Fresh to strong winds cover portions of the NE Atlantic north of 20N and east of 20W. Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in effect offshore of Morocco. For the forecast west of 65W, gale to storm force winds are expected today just off NE Florida and W of the low pressure center. The pressure gradient between the low pressure center and high pressure over the NE United States will support a continuation of gale force winds N of 30N between 77W and 80W through Sun night. The trailing cold front will stretch from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the waters N of 27N through at least Mon. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ Hagen