000 AXNT20 KNHC 042200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 42.4N 39.2W at 04/2100 UTC or 620 nm WNW of the Azores moving NE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 40N to 47N between 38W and 43W. The NE to E is expected through tonight, with turn southeastward and southward by Sat. Little change in intensity is forecast through Fri afternoon before some slight strengthening Fri night and Sat. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Gale Warnings: a low pressure has developed along a frontal boundary over the W central Gulf. As this low tracks ENE across the Gulf into N Florida through Friday night. A tightening pressure gradient between this low and a ridge of high pressure behind the front over the SE U.S. will cause strong to near gale winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, across the NE Gulf late Fri. As the low moves across N Florida toward the Atlantic late Fri night and Sat morning, these strong to gale winds should shift northeastward into the Atlantic offshore waters of N Florida. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Senegal- Mauritania border at 15N16W to 15N20W. Farther SW, the ITCZ stretches from 03N21W to 07N31W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 35W and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more information about the gale warning for the NE Gulf by Fri night. A stationary front extends from north Florida to the western Gulf. Active convection prevails across much of the Gulf waters north of 23N. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the western Gulf with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the front. Light to gentle winds prevail east of the front. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, frontal system extends across the basin. Low pressure will continue to develop along the front over the central Gulf tonight, then move to the northeast into central Florida through late Fri. A cold front will follow, moving southeast of the Gulf by late Sat. Strong to near gale force winds are possible over the northeast Gulf by late Fri as the low moves inland, with frequent gusts to gale force expected. Winds and seas will diminish over the western Gulf Sat through early next week as high pressure builds north of the area following the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A couple of surface troughs over the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as over W Cuba and nearby Caribbean waters are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are noted over the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft are over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the surface trough over the northwest Caribbean continues weakening, allowing winds and seas to diminish. High pressure over the Atlantic is supporting moderate winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh N winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel Fri night. The front will reach from central Cuba to eastern Honduras Sat night, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua by late Sun. The front start to stall by Mon as it drifts eastward into the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more information about the gale warning for Fri night and Sat. A stationary front extends from near 31N75W to northern Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is near and within 210 nm se of the front. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N51W to 25N48W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm west of the trough. Another trough extends from 31N30W to 21N35W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm east of the trough north of 28N. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail west of the stationary front. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft are noted over much of the remaining tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N. Over the tropical waters south of 20N, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, a stationary front extends across the coastal waters off northeast Florida. Low pressure will move northward along the front Fri night into Sat, supporting winds to gale force in the offshore waters of northeast Florida through late Sat. The low pressure will lift to the northeast through Mon, with the trailing front reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Mon night. $$ AL