000 AXNT20 KNHC 040455 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Nov 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 40.6N 39.6W at 04/0300 UTC or 605 nm WNW of the Azores moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found within 180 nm of the center, especially in the NW quadrant. A slower northward motion is expected through this morning. A slow eastern motion is forecast by Thursday night, followed by a faster south- southeastward motion by Friday. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 06N19W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N19W to 02N38W and then continues from 02N41W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 22W and 29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Big Bend region of Florida to near 29N94W and then continues as a cold front from 29N94W to southern Texas near 27N98W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm of the SE Texas and SW Louisiana coasts. Seas of 3-6 ft are found behind the cold front in the NW Gulf. A surface trough extends from 28N86W to 23N88W and it is producing a few shallow showers near the trough axis. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated a sharp trough and fresh cyclonic winds within 60 nm of the trough axis. The rest of the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions with moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft. For the forecast, a front moving into the northern Gulf will move across the western Gulf through early Fri. Low pressure will develop ahead of the front over the south-central Gulf by early Thu, then move to the northeast into central Florida through late Fri. the front will follow, and move southeast of the Gulf by late Sat. Strong to near gale force winds are possible over the northeast Gulf by late Fri as the low moves inland, with frequent gusts to gale force possible. Winds and seas will diminish over the western Gulf Sat through early next week as high pressure builds north of the area following the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are found in the NW Caribbean Sea due to two surface troughs. One of the troughs is located along 82W, extending from Havana to 18N81W. The scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm to the E of the trough axis, affecting the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba. The other surface trough is found in the Gulf of Honduras and the shower activity has decreased in the last few hours, with the heaviest showers occurring within 60 nm of the N Honduras coast. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh trades within 60 nm of the Colombian coast, while moderate or weaker winds prevail in the rest of the basin. Seas of 2-4 ft are present in the central and eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, a trough over the northwest Caribbean is weakening, allowing winds and seas to diminish. High pressure over the Atlantic is supporting moderate winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh N winds and building seas will follow a a cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel Fri night. The front will reach from central Cuba to eastern Honduras Sat night, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua by late Sun. The front start to stall by Mon as it drifts eastward into the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the deep tropics, a surface trough extends from 09N37W to 00N41W and it is interacting with an upper level trough to the north, resulting in a large area of disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly from 01N to 09N and between 33W and 44W. Recent scatterometer satellite data show a broad trough with fresh to strong trades, especially in areas of heavy showers. Farther north, a surface trough extends from 31N31W to 17N37W and scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm to the E of the trough axis, mainly N of 23N. Fresh to strong southerly winds are also present E of the trough axis to 29W and mainly N of 22N. The rest of the basin is dominated by a weak 1021 mb high pressure several hundred miles NE of Bermuda, favoring fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh N-NE winds are occurring E of 20W and from 19N to 24N. Moderate or weaker winds prevail in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Seas of 3-6 ft are noted W of 60W and 4-7 ft elsewhere in the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure north of the area will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through the early morning. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a cold front moving into the waters off northeast Florida Thu night. A low will develop along the front by Fri evening and strong to near gale force are anticipated to develop over the waters off northeast Florida through Sat. Frequents gusts to gale force are possible Fri night off northeast Florida, then gale-force NW winds are expected on Sat. $$ DELGADO