000 AXNT20 KNHC 032207 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 39.8N 39.5W at 03/2100 UTC or 590 nm WNW of the Azores moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found within 90 nm of the center. Wanda will continue on a northward motion for the next day or so, followed by slowing and a sharp turn to the east by Thursday night. Little change in intensity is forecast during the next couple of days. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Senegal coast near 15N17W to 12N20W. No significant convection is seen near the monsoon trough. Farther SW, the ITCZ extends westward from 04N20W to 05N32W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 10N between 25W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near the Florida Big Bend to near Galveston, Texas. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, a cold front will enter the northwest Gulf tonight. Fresh winds will follow the front through Thu as it reaches from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico by late Thu. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the southeast Gulf ahead of the front by late Thu. The low will deepen by late Fri as it moves into the east Gulf, with the front extending from the low to the southwest Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over the northeast Gulf by Fri night as the low moves onshore over north Florida. Winds and seas will diminish over the western Gulf Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. High pressure will build north of the area Sun following the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras is coupling with divergent winds aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW basin, including the E coast of Belize and N coast of Honduras. This activity is forecast to spread inland into S Belize, N Honduras and E Guatemala Thu and Fri. Heavy downpours from strong thunderstorms will increase the chance of local flooding in rivers and valleys. Another surface trough over the Cayman Islands and W Cuba is producing scattered showers isolated thunderstorms across the nearby Caribbean waters. An upper-level low just NW of Puerto Rico near 20N68W is causing similar conditions across E Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and nearby waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range. For the forecast, a surface trough extends across the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail in the vicinity of the trough with scattered moderate convection. A weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and eastern basin into Sat. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean by early Sat, followed by moderate to fresh N winds. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by late Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends over the far NW waters off the coast of northern Florida. Otherwise, three surface trough are noted across the area. The first trough extends from 31N71W to 26N73W. Shallow convection is noted east of the trough axis. The second trough extends from 29N47W to 24N53W. No significant convection is associated to this trough. A third trough extends from 28N33W to 17N39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm east of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are noted west of the stationary front. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail across the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range north of 25N between 30W and 45W, in the 1-3 ft range over the waters west of 73W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Over the tropical waters south of 20N, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure north of the area will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through tonight. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a cold front moving into the waters off northeast Florida Thu night. A low will develop along the front by Fri evening and strong to near gale force are anticipated to develop over the waters off northeast Florida through Sat. Frequents gusts to gale force are possible Fri night off northeast Florida, then gale-force NW winds are expected on Sat. $$ AL