000 AXNT20 KNHC 030927 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Nov 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 38.0N 40.3W at 03/0900 UTC or 635 nm W of the Azores moving NNE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Wanda is producing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of the center. Little change in intensity is forecast during the next couple of days. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across portions of Central America: An area of low pressure located about 100 nm W of Costa Rica is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storm activity is affecting the Pacific coast of Costa Rica, which could result in flooding and mudslides. The system is forecast to move further into the the eastern Pacific basin over the next couple of days. In addition, a surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras is forecast to support rainfall in parts of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize through early Friday. A moist and unstable atmosphere is already in place over most of Central America along with moist monsoonal flow south of the monsoon trough. All these ingredients are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, eastern Nicaragua and some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. Please consult products from your local meteorological offices for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Senegal border near 14N17W to 08N22W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N22W to the coast of NE Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 25W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mostly stationary weak front extends from near Fort Walton Beach, Florida to the mouth of the Mississippi River then westward to near Galveston, Texas. Weak high pressure is centered north of the area over the Tennessee Valley. A trough is evident across the southeast Gulf from 27N83W to the Straits of Florida and central Cuba. a weak pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas across the Gulf. No major shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, the front will stall then lift north as a the weak high pressure north of the region shifts east ahead of a cold front entering the northwest Gulf tonight. Fresh winds will follow the front through Thu as it reaches from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico by late Thu. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the southeast Gulf ahead of the front by late Thu. The low will deepen by late Fri as it moves into the northeast Gulf, with the front extending from the low to the southwest Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over the northeast Gulf by Fri night as the low moves onshore over north Florida. Winds and seas will diminish mainly over the western Gulf Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. High pressure will build north of the area Sun following the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on the heavy rainfall event affecting Central America. A surface trough from eastern Cuba to central Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident along the front, south of 18N and west of 83W, to include over the Gulf of Honduras. Farther east, an upper trough reaching from over eastern Dominican Republic to northeast Colombia is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the northeast Caribbean to include Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. No other significant convection is evident. Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing north of the trough over the northwest Caribbean, with moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue to support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and eastern basin into Sat. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean by early Sat, followed by moderate to fresh N winds. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by late Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak pressure pattern continues across the Atlantic waters south of 31N and west of 50W, supporting light to gentle NE to E breezes, except for moderate trade winds south of 22N. Seas are 3 to 5 ft west of 65W, and 5 to 7 ft between 50W and 65W in NE swell. Farther east, an upper low persists near 17N36W, supporting 1012 mb low pressure near 20N35W. This is also supporting a large area of fresh S winds north of 20N betwen 25W and 35W and clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection. Upper divergence southeast of this upper low is also assisting the convection along the ITCZ farther south, between 25w and 35W. A deep layer trough northwest of the upper low is moving eastward and coming into phase with the upper low, with an associated surface trough reaching from 31N32W to 18N55W. This is supporting moderate to occasionally fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft seas with NE swell north of 27N between 35W and 55W. Gentle to moderate winds are evident elsewhere across the basin, with 4 to 6 ft seas, except 3 to 5 ft seas west of 65W. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure north of the area will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through late today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a cold front moving into the waters off northeast Florida Thu night. A low will develop along the front by Fri evening and strong to near gale force are anticipated to develop over the waters off northeast Florida through Sat. Frequents gusts to gale force are possible Fri night off northeast Florida. The cold front is expected to extend from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sun night. $$ Christensen