000 AXNT20 KNHC 021654 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Wanda is moving northward over the northern Atlantic. At 02/1500 UTC, Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 35.6N 40.6W or 670 nm W of the Azores moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. On the forecast track, a turn toward the north- northeast is expected this afternoon or evening, followed by a northeastward motion tonight and Wednesday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Deep convection related to Wanda has diminished since overnight but the low level circulation remains well defined. Please see the latest Wanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across portions of Central America: A low pressure system located along the eastern coast of Costa Rica is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move westward over Central America later today, and significant development is unlikely due to its interaction with land. However, this disturbance will still produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama through today, which could result in flooding and mudslides. By Wednesday, the system is forecast to move into the far eastern portion of the eastern Pacific basin. In addition, a shearline in the Gulf of Honduras is forecast to support rainfall in parts of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize through early Fri. A moist and unstable atmosphere is already in place over most of Central America along with moist southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. All these ingredients are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, eastern Nicaragua and some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details, and consult products from your local meteorological offices. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through The Gambia/Senegal border near 13N17W to 07N22W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N22W to 06N30W to 07N37W to the coast of French Guiana. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 05N between 10W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1033 mb high pressure system over the central United States extends a ridge southward into the Gulf of Mexico. The dry continental airmass that moved into the region behind the previous cold front continues to limit the development of showers and thunderstorms. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the NE Gulf with patches of low level moisture and possible light showers elsewhere. One of then is over the SE Gulf affecting the province of Pinar del Rio in Cuba. The weak pressure gradient is resulting in moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas. At 12Z, a cold front is analyzed from north Florida to SE Louisiana. A reinforcing cold airmass follows the front. As a result, unseasonably cool temperatures are expected to persist over the central and eastern US. For the forecast, gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the basin will increase to moderate to fresh over the northern half of the Gulf by Thu morning ahead of a front expected to extend along the northern Gulf coastal waters by Wed night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are forecast for the waters W of 94W early Thu evening through Fri, decreasing to moderate to fresh in the region of Veracruz on Sat. The front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to the W Bay of Campeche Fri morning and fresh to strong NE winds will develop over the offshore waters between the Florida Big Bend and the front. The front will exit the basin Fri night, allowing seas to gradually subside through late Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Locally Heavy Rainfall is expected across portions of Central America. Please, see the Special Features section for details. A shearline extends from near Cabo Cruz in eastern Cuba to near the Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are west of this line, which is also supporting scattered showers and tstms between the Cayman Islands and the Gulf of Honduras. This feature will slowly shift westward through Wed, supporting the continuation of showers and fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean. An upper-level low spinning between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola supports some shower activity over the NE Caribbean, especially across the Anegada Passage, US/UK Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. Unsettled conditions will continue over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola over the next couple of days under the influence of the upper level trough. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong trades near the coast of Colombia with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft over the south-central and SW Caribbean, 4-5 ft W of the shearline, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the SW Caribbean will diminish this evening as a low pressure off the coast of SE Costa Rica weakens into a surface trough through Wed. A weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and E basin through Sat night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh N winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean waters Fri evening through Sat night in the wake of a cold front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N52W, then continues SW to near 26N61W where it becomes stationary to eastern Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas in the 6-7 ft range are in the wake of the cold front. Patches of low level clouds with possible showers are noted along the frontal boundary. E of the front, a surface trough extends from 31N37W to 22N44W to 19N57W. Seas are 8-10 ft in northerly swell N of 25N between the front and the trough. Farther east, a 1012 mb low pressure is seen near 21N35W with a trough along it. This is the reflexion of an upper level trough. A band of moderate to isolated strong convection is just E of the surface trough and covers the waters from 18N to 29N between 30W and 35W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted in association with this convective activity. Between the trough and the W coast of Africa mainly moderate trades prevail with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the Atlantic. The eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a 1024 mb high pressure located mid-way between the Azores and the Madeira Islands. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud detectable on satellite imagery extending eastward 20 nm. Low volcanic ash concentration elsewhere. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front extending to eastern Cuba, will continue to weaken today. High pressure building behind the front will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through mid week, except occasionally pulsing to fresh off Hispaniola mainly at night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a front moving into the waters off NE Florida Thu night. A low will develop along the front by Fri evening and gale force winds are anticipated to develop over the NW offshore waters through Sat. The cold front is expected to extend from 31N74W to central Cuba by Sat night. $$ GR