000 AXNT20 KNHC 020511 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 34.5N 41.6W at 02/0300 UTC, or 735 nm WSW of the Azores moving ENE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 200 nm across the NE quadrant of Wanda. Little change in strength is expected through midweek. A turn toward the northeast is expected today, followed by a slightly faster northward motion tonight and Wednesday. Please see the latest Wanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave previously along 42W is analyzed to have dissipated based on satellite imagery and wave guidance. Therefore, no tropical waves are noted across the basin. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W to 09N23W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N23W to 09N34W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 200 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 29W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1031 mb high pressure system over the central United States extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico. The dry continental airmass that moved into the region behind the previous cold front continues to limit the development of showers and thunderstorms. Currently, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the basin. The weak pressure gradient result in moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will maintain light to gentle easterly breezes and slight seas through Tue. Winds will increase to moderate Wed over the northern half of the Gulf, as a trough develops over the southeast Gulf and ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf Wed night into Thu. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are forecast for the waters W of 94W early Thu evening through Fri, decreasing to moderate to fresh in the region of Veracruz on Sat. The front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to the W Bay of Campeche Fri morning and fresh to strong NE winds will develop over the offshore waters between the Florida Big Bend and the front. The front will exit the basin Fri night, allowing seas to gradually subside through late Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line, remnant of a former dissipating stationary front, stretches from E Cuba near 21N77W to E Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm W of the shear line and S of 20N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to locally strong NE winds N of 18N and between the shear line to 84W. Meanwhile, a 1009 mb low pressure near 11N82W along the E Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is producing disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms within 100 nm of the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica and SE Nicaragua. Satellite- derived wind data indicate that fresh trades are found in the SW Caribbean, especially in association with the storm activity in the area. The rest of the Caribbean Sea is experiencing a dry airmass, suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Moderate or weaker winds are found in the central and E Caribbean. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the SW Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a shear line, remnant of a former dissipating stationary front, extends from eastern Cuba to Cabo Gracias a Dios, Honduras. This feature will slowly shift westward through Wed, supporting the continuation of showers and fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the southwest Caribbean will diminish Tue as a low pressure over the SW Caribbean weakens into a surface trough through mid week. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and E basin through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N58W to E Cuba near 21N75W. Only a few showers are observed near the frontal boundary. Farther west, a weak surface trough stretches from SE Florida to near Andros Island in the NW Bahamas. A few showers are noted near the trough axis, mainly within 60 nm of the Florida coast. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 33N37W to 20N62W and scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen N of 20N and between 30W and 37W. Recent satellite-derived wind data depict fresh to strong SE-S winds N of 20N and between 28W and 41W. Seas of 7-10 ft are occurring N of 24N and between 29W and 53W. In the deep tropics, a 1010 mb low pressure is located near 15N34W or several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly within 360 nm E of the low pressure. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong winds are present to the E of the low pressure center, mainly from 12N and 20N and between 29W and 35W. Seas of 6-9 ft are found between the low pressure and the Cabo Verde Islands. The rest of the tropical Atlantic enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the rest of the Atlantic. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud detectable on satellite imagery extending northward and eastward. Medium VA concentration in vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes /la- palma/. West of 65W, a cold front extends from 26N65W to 22N72W then transitions to a shear line to Baracoa, Cuba. The front will stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba overnight, then will dissipate through early Tue. High pressure building behind the front will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through mid week, except occasionally pulsing to fresh off Hispaniola mainly at night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a front moving into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front over the waters west of 77W through Sat. $$ DELGADO