000 AXNT20 KNHC 011734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Nov 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Wanda is wandering across the north Atlantic west of the Azores. At 01/1500, Subtropical Storm Wanda is centered near 34.0N 43.0W or 810 nm WSW of the Azores moving E at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. On the forecast track, a turn toward the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the north by late Tuesday. Some slight fluctuations in strength are anticipated during the next few days. However, Wanda could still become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Please read the latest Wanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The weak tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 08N to 18N and it is moving W around 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N16W to 06N26W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N between 08W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing light to gentle winds and seas generally in the 1-3 ft range. A band of mainly high clouds extends from the Tampico area to SE Louisiana and the NE Gulf. This cloudiness is associated with strong SW upper-level winds covering most of the Gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will maintain light to gentle easterly winds and slight seas through Tue. Winds will increase to moderate Wed over the northern half of the Gulf, ahead of a weak cold front moving into the northwest Gulf Wed night into Thu. The front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico by Fri. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are forecast for the waters W of 94W early Thu evening through Fri, decreasing to moderate to fresh in the region of Veracruz on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating frontal boundary extends from near Cabo Cruz in eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed over the SW Caribbean near 11N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary while an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is noted within about 150 nm SW quadrant of the low center. This convective activity is currently affecting western Panama and the Atlantic region of Costa Rica. A recent scatterometer pass shows the cyclonic circulation related to the low center, with fresh to locally strong winds in the NE quadrant of the low. Fresh to strong winds are also seen near the convective activity associated with this low. Fresh northerly winds are in the wake of the front in the lee of eastern Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh trades are near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 2-4 ft across the basin, with the exception of 4-5 ft near the aforementioned low pressure, and just W of the frontal boundary S of 18N. For the forecast, a low pressure (a CAG-type event) is expected to persist over the SW Caribbean through Fri, while the frontal boundary, as a trough, will drift westward toward the NW Caribbean by mid-week. The combination of these systems could bring moderate to locally heavy rain over parts of Central America over the next 2-3 days. Abundant tropical moisture is forecast to persist in this area. A weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N61W to 23N71W, where it becomes stationary crossing the Turks and Caicos Islands into eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the front south of 24N70W. Light to gentle winds are on either side of the front. A 1018 high pressure is ahead of the front near 24N63W. A surface trough stretches from 31N42W to 24N45W to 21N55W. Satellite derived wind data clearly indicate the wind shift associated with the trough as well as fresh to strong southerly winds N of 26N E of the trough to about 31W. The pressure gradient between this trough and a high pressure of 1025 mb located W of the Madeira Islands supports these wind speeds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of trough mainly N of 26N. Over the tropical Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure is located near 14.0N32.5W or several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system continues to produce disorganized shower activity mainly on the E side. Visible satellite imagery shows a well defined swirl of low clouds associated with the low center. This system is moving northwestward into a region of less conducive upper-level winds, and the chances of tropical cyclone development are decreasing. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash emission is visible on satellite data. Medium to high volcanic ash concentration over volcano and vicinity. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the above mentioned cold front will stall over the SW N Atlantic, then will dissipate tonight. High pressure building behind the front will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through mid week, except occasionally pulsing to fresh off Hispaniola mainly at night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a front moving into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri. $$ GR