000 AXNT20 KNHC 011029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Nov 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Wanda is centered near 34.5N 43.9W at 01/0900 UTC or 840 nm W of the Azores moving SE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Wanda is mostly exposed with scattered moderate convection noted within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Wanda is expected to turn more to the northeast later today, then northward by the middle of the week. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 39W, from 08N to 18N and it is moving W around 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 04N20W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N20W to 06N30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 07W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1021 mb high pressure system centered over SE Louisiana dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A dry airmass encompasses the entire region and no significant convection is observed on satellite imagery. Recent buoy observations and earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated light to gentle breezes with slight slight seas are prevalent across the Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will continue to maintain light to gentle easterly breezes and slight seas through Tue. Winds will increase slightly Wed over the northern Gulf, ahead of a weak cold front moving into the northwest Gulf Wed night into Thu. The front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico by Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front reaching from Cabo Cruz in eastern Cuba to near 17N82W is dissipating. A surface trough reaches from the end of this front to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N80W, along the the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh N winds are possibly lingering between the trough and the coast of Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are active between the low and central Panama. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are note within 60 nm either side of the trough and front as well. No other significant convection is observed. A surface trough is moving across the Leeward and Windward Islands, related to an upper trough over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with slight to moderate seas are noted across the Caribbean. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate this morning. The fresh N winds off Nicaragua will diminish today as the low pressure over the southwest Caribbean weakens. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will continue to support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N64W to 24N70W, then is stationary across the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Weak high pressure is building north of the front. Light to gentle breezes persist east of 65W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in NE swell over open waters. No significant convection is active at this time. Farther east, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active north of 20N between 30W and 40W, associated with a mid to upper trough along 40W. A related surface trough extends from 31N39W to 22N50W to 23N57W. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are evident on either side of this trough north of 24N between 30W and 55W. The mid to upper pattern is also supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 08N to 17N between 25W and 30W, associated with a 1010 mb surface low near 13N32W. Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are evident from 12N to 18N between 25W an 35W, between this low pressure and high pressure centered off northwest Africa. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la- palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the front will stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba late today, then will dissipate tonight. High pressure building behind the front will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through mid week, except occasionally pulsing to fresh off Hispaniola mainly at night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a front moving into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri. $$ Christensen